Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) is trading in the shadows of Nvidia Corp's (NASDAQ:NVDA) blockbuster earnings event, but investors are asking if this week could finally snap it out of its slump.
Shares currently sit just above $44, down a bruising 27% over the past month and more than 22% over the past year—a sharp contrast to Nvidia, whose results on Wednesday could be the tide that lifts AI-adjacent boats.
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Chart Check: In The Green Zone
Technicians are eyeing SMCI's 200-day moving average at $39.38, with the stock still comfortably above it. However, short-term averages paint a choppier picture: SMCI trades below both its 20-day ($48.21) and 50-day ($48.93) moving averages, signaling near-term weakness.
The RSI (relative strength index) at 39.82 suggests the stock is flirting with oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence), at -2.06, highlights bearish momentum.
Put together, it looks like SMCI is consolidating in what some traders call a "green zone"—a place where downside risk is limited, but upside hinges on a catalyst.
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Nvidia Sympathy Trade
That catalyst could be Nvidia. As one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI-driven data center demand, Super Micro often trades in sympathy with the chip giant. If Nvidia delivers another round of record-breaking growth, SMCI may catch a bid on expectations that server demand—and by extension, Super Micro's specialized systems—will keep booming.
But there's a flip side. If Nvidia guidance underwhelms or investors rotate out of AI hype, SMCI could find itself stuck in neutral, testing that 200-day line as support.
The Investor Question
SMCI has already been a tale of volatility, swinging from a 52-week high of $66.44 to a low of $17.25. At current levels, it's less a growth darling and more a battleground stock where technicals and catalysts collide.
The green zone may provide a floor—but only Nvidia's earnings can decide whether SMCI breaks higher or sinks back toward its lows.
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