One of Wall Street's loudest bulls just hit the brakes on Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA), raising questions over its slowing growth and head-scratching billion-dollar bets, even as the AI titan crossed a $4.4 trillion market cap.
In a note shared Thursday, Ed Yardeni said that Nvidia’s story is getting messy. He pointed to some red flags hovering over the chipmaker's future growth strategy.
His primary concern? The slowing pace of data center revenue expansion and the company's aggressive, even eyebrow-raising, investments in companies that are expected to become future buyers of Nvidia chips.
Is Nvidia Buying Its Own Growth?
"Nvidia has been seeding its future demand by investing huge sums in companies that will likely grow into big purchasers of Nvidia chips," Yardeni said. "Will the investments bear the hoped-for fruit?"
He's not alone in wondering. The tech giant's recent actions appear more like those of a hedge fund than a chipmaker, raising questions about whether its growth is still organic — or increasingly manufactured.
The boldest deal so far is Nvidia's pledge to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. The funding will be rolled out in $10 billion increments, with the first phase scheduled for launch in late 2026. The first round valued OpenAI at $500 billion; subsequent tranches will depend on future valuations.
Nvidia was already an investor, having joined the $6.6 billion funding round in 2024 with a $100 million stake. But this latest commitment dramatically raises the stakes — and expectations.
There's a domino effect: OpenAI recently agreed to spend $300 billion on Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL)'s computing infrastructure starting in 2027, silencing skeptics who questioned whether the AI firm could afford it. With Nvidia chips powering Oracle data centers, the whole arrangement feels like a closed circuit.
Adding a political twist, OpenAI also committed $100 billion toward President Donald Trump's Stargate Project, an ambitious plan to build data centers across the U.S. and beyond.
Total projected costs? $1 trillion. Nvidia's gear will almost certainly be embedded in these facilities.
According to Yardeni, Nvidia's stock is beginning to draw parallels to Cisco's meteoric rise in the late 1990s — a rally that ended in a brutal 2000 crash.
Nvidia Buys Into Intel, CoreWeave And UK Startups
Another unusual move came on Sept. 18, when Nvidia took a $5 billion stake in Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) at $23.28 per share, with plans to co-develop data center and PC products. Intel shares skyrocketed, but some analysts were puzzled by the move — especially given Nvidia's edge in AI chips.
The same day, Nvidia announced it would pump £2 billion (about $2.7 billion) into the UK's AI startup ecosystem and separately invested $500 million in Nscale, a data center company that utilizes its chips.
Then there's CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV), an AI-focused cloud provider.
Nvidia first invested $100 million in 2023, followed by a $250 million stock purchase during CoreWeave's rocky IPO in March 2025. That wasn't all — Nvidia also committed to buying any unused server capacity from CoreWeave through 2032, a deal valued at $6.3 billion.
Can Nvidia Afford All This?
On the surface, yes. Nvidia ended its fiscal second quarter with $56.8 billion in cash and marketable securities and just $8.5 billion in long-term debt. The company generated a massive $42.8 billion in operating cash flow in the quarter and used $9.7 billion for share buybacks.
Despite all the spending, Nvidia shares are not showing signs of stress.
The stock hit a new 52-week high on Monday and is up 32.9% year-to-date. Analysts expect 39.5% revenue growth over the next 12 months, alongside 44.3% earnings growth. At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 31.1, its valuation still looks reasonable.
But What If The Funding Stops?
Yardeni's worry is clear: if these startups — particularly OpenAI and CoreWeave — stop receiving external funding or encounter operational roadblocks, Nvidia's demand pipeline could dry up quickly.
"As long as companies like OpenAI and CoreWeave can continue to raise billions of dollars from Nvidia and others to build data centers, Nvidia's chips should stay in demand," he said.
"But the day that stops, watch out."
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