Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is off to slow start this year, but the political landscape in the U.S. should keep that "digital gold" narrative in place.  That doesn't mean the main crypto trade will rise and fall along with gold. Recall last year that gold was a better buy than Bitcoin. But founders in the space think that it will continue to decouple from the tech stocks and be seen as a highly speculative gold alternative with a lot of upside.

"Bitcoin doesn't respond to politics—it responds to math and in periods of global stress, we see it is clearly decoupling from tech and re-entering the macro conversation, pricing credibility rather than growth stories," said Travis VanderZanden, founder & CEO of the fintech crypto savings firm called Buck.

VanderZanden, also known as the founder of scooter sharing service Bird, now owned by Third Lane Mobility, said Bitcoin trading activity is becoming less speculative. Investors are holding it long, just as they would the SPDR Gold (NYSE:GLD) ETF. 

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (NYSE:GBTC) is around 1.8% so far this year while GLD is up over 10%. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) fund, often seen as the real gold alt, is up 23.7%. One look at those numbers and it seems Bitcoin is starting off 2026 mimicking the Nasdaq again. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) is down around 1% at the time of this writing.

Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq turned negative in 2025 for the first time since 2014, a structural shift worth watching.

So are the macro trends.

A Department of Justice investigation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (President Trump said he's got no plans to fire him, though), the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, the Greenland imbroglio between Trump and Europe, and riots and investigations into political leaders over immigration laws in Minneapolis have made for a dramatic entry to the new year. Japan's bond market saw yields sky rocket to record highs over 4% on Tuesday as snap elections were called, suggesting a government in turmoil there. As one well known European economist said on social media, 2026 is telling 2025 to "hold my beer".

Investors are still saying they prefer gold over the so-called digital gold in 2026.

"Bitcoin's definitely not replacing gold, but maybe it’s complementing it," said Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT, a cryptocurrency trading platform.

The Macro Forces Shaping Bitcoin

Looking into 2026, the macro forces driving the Bitcoin theme aren’t fading. Geopolitical tensions continue escalating. Political systems in Europe's most important economies – the UK, France and Germany – have collapsing support. 

Currency debasement concerns continue, including in the U.S., even though the country's deficit-to-GDP is better this year than last year.

Last month, the Joint Economic Committee released its Monthly Fiscal Update showing that the federal government ran a deficit of $173.277 billion in November. From the beginning of the fiscal year to November, deficits were $457.627 billion. "This means 38.2% of outlays in FY2026 were not paid for by revenues, and for every dollar the federal government received in revenue, it spent $1.62," the Committee said in a statement dated Dec. 11.

"Inflation also remains sticky despite central bank efforts. These are precisely the conditions Bitcoin was created to address, and the same forces that have historically driven gold. Bitcoin hasn’t replaced gold as a safe haven, but it’s earning its place alongside it," Randin said.

Bitcoin is trading below $90,000 again on Wednesday due to political headlines. Gold was up over 1.5% during mid-day trading on Wednesday.

"Bitcoin trailing gold during global stress doesn't weaken the thesis for me," said Nima Beni, founder of Bitlease, a crypto leasing and financing platform based in Dubai that introduced a "Lease-to-Own" model for digital assets.

Beni might best be described as the opposite of a gold bug. To Beni, gold doesn't really hold value because it's held by institutions who "suppress real price discovery," he claimed.

“Bitcoin gets no protection, no cushioning, no narrative management and that's precisely why it matters. It doesn't act as an antidote to fear like gold does," Beni said.

Bitcoin is “traditional market hedge, meets new market reality.” Investors are no longer speculating in Bitcoin, or even treating it as a cyber QQQ or digital gold. They are treating it, and the entire A-list of the cryptocurrency universe, as a new financial architecture. It’s a bet on the future of money.

Institutional capital isn't moving into Bitcoin because someone finally explained how it's a hedge, like gold, said VanderZanden. "They're moving because ignoring a neutral, global monetary asset looks irresponsible."

The writer is an investor in the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF. Cover art by the author.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

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