OpenAI and Anthropic appear to be accelerating their timelines toward potential 2026 initial public offerings.

According to recent data from prediction markets, this race may prevent a near-term slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, potentially providing a tailwind for Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT).

The Narrative Gap

The setup for these private giants is straightforward.

If OpenAI intends to list with a “frontier leader” narrative, it likely needs to demonstrate technical dominance.

However, Polymarket traders currently price Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) as a heavy favorite to hold the “best model” title through March.

This gap raises the stakes: if these private labs want to justify ‘frontier' status into an IPO window, they may have to spend aggressively on compute.

The Polymarket Odds

Three specific markets frame the current trade:

• OpenAI IPO Timing: Traders currently see a 40% probability of an IPO by Dec. 31. The odds for a more aggressive June 30, debut sit at just 6%.
• The “Best Model” Proxy: A contract asking who will have the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of March shows Google with an 81% chance of winning. OpenAI follows at a distant 8%.
• Anthropic Listing Odds: The market remains skeptical of a near-term Anthropic debut, with an 89% probability that no IPO occurs before June 30.

Why It Matters For Public Tickers

The IPO pressure may force a behavior shift where compute becomes the primary lever for valuation growth. This keeps the AI infrastructure complex in an “accelerating” regime.

Semiconductor Focus: The training and inference arms race continues to benefit Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD, NASDAQ:AMD), Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO, NASDAQ:AVGO), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE:TSM, NYSE:TSM).

Cloud Alignment: Amazon is reportedly in talks to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI. Such a move could signal a strategic shift in the “cloud proxy” mapping, as OpenAI looks to diversify its infrastructure needs beyond its existing partnership with Microsoft.

Data Center Buildout: The physical requirements of this race remain intensive. Firms specializing in networking, power, and cooling, such as Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET, NYSE:ANET), Vertiv Holdings Co (NYSE:VRT, NYSE:VRT), and Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI, NASDAQ:SMCI), may see sustained demand as long as the IPO race remains active.

What To Watch Next

A significant move in the Polymarket “best model” odds away from Google could be the first indicator that the narrative is shifting.

Additionally, a confirmed multi-billion dollar check from Amazon would likely change the competitive landscape for cloud providers overnight.

Image: Shutterstock

• No comments yet. Be the first to comment!