Sports bettors and NFL fans may have their favorite team to root for in Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots on Feb. 8. When it comes to investors, there may be a clear favorite for whom the markets want to win.
Super Bowl Indicator
Similar to the Santa Claus Rally, the Super Bowl Indicator may be a fun tool used to determine if recent market trends will hold true when it comes to the S&P 500 after Super Bowl LX.
The S&P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), performs better on average when the NFC team wins the Super Bowl, Caron Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick said in a recent blog post.
Over the last 59 Super Bowls, 30 have been won by the NFC, with 20 won by the AFC.
First discovered by New York Times sportswriter Leonard Kopett in 1978, the indicator shows that the index historically performs better after an NFC team wins. Here's the data:
- NFC team wins: S&P 500 average gain for full year 10.2%, 23 years up, 7 years down, 76.7% years up
- AFC team wins: S&P 500 average gain for full year 8.1%, 20 years up, 9 years down, 69% years up
For comparison, during the Super Bowl era, the S&P 500 averages yearly gains of 9.2%. This means that the market outperforms on average in years when the NFC team wins, while the index underperforms when an AFC team wins.
The indicator has trailed off a bit in recent years, with AFC teams winning six of the past 10 Super Bowls and stocks being up 12 of the past 13 times when an AFC team won the Super Bowl.
While the Super Bowl Indicator hasn't been as accurate in recent years, it could still mean that investors without a team to root for should be cheering on the Seahawks.
The Seahawks find themselves as the betting favorites at sportsbooks with DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG) listing the team as 4.5-point favorites over the Patriots.
Detrick also shared the data of the S&P 500 returns for each of the 22 NFL teams that have won the Super Bowl. With this year's matchups featuring two past winners, investors have historical data to go from.
The Seahawks have one Super Bowl win, with the S&P 500 up 11.4% after their victory. This ranks ninth of the 22 winners.
The Patriots have six Super Bowl wins. In the years after the Patriots won a Super Bowl, the S&P 500 average gains were only 6%, ranking 14th of the 22 Super Bowl-winning teams.
Should Fans Root For a Super Bowl Blowout?
For those not willing to root for the Seahawks to win, they may want to root for a Patriots blowout victory.
The Super Bowl Indicator data also shows that the S&P 500 performs better in years when the Super Bowl is decided by double digits.
In the years when the Super Bowl is decided by single digits, the S&P 500 averages gains of around 6.5% and is higher around 62.5% of the time.
Years with a double-digit Super Bowl victor see average S&P 500 gains of 11% with the market trading higher 8% of the time.
In years when the Super Bowl is decided by 21 points or more, the average S&P 500 return is 13.6%. This has happened in only 13 of the 59 Super Bowls, but the markets were higher 84.6% of the time when this occurred.
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