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Home Depot Shares Tank On Outlook, Analysts Remain Bullish

Shares of Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) tanked on Wednesday, despite the company’s solid fourth-quarter report.

Here are the key analyst insights:

  • Guggenheim Securities analyst Steven Forbes reaffirmed a Buy rating, raising the price target from $400 to $425.
  • DA Davidson analyst Michael Baker reiterated a Buy rating, and upped the price target from $407 to $445.
  • Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $410 to $435.
  • BofA Securities analyst Robert Ohmes maintained a Buy rating and a $430 price target.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Guggenheim Securities: Home Depot's operating results for the fourth quarter "broadly exceed our estimates," Forbes said in a note. He cited a comp upside of around 60 basis points and adjusted EBITDA higher by about 3.5%

Continued progress and scaling behind the company’s various PRO ecosystem initiatives include:

  • Order management & digital project planning tools
  • Trade credit platform
  • Job site delivery plus real-time tracking for big & bulky orders
  • Various AI-enabled tools
  • External sales force

Expect maturation of these initiatives "to widen the company’s industry out-performance gap—fostering meaningful share capture" in 2026 and beyond, Forbes says.

DA Davidson: Home Depot continues to face macro-related issues, Baker said. While some numbers are getting weaker, some signs are getting better, "suggesting we may be inching closer to the recovery," he added.

The midpoint of Home Depot's guidance suggests 1% comp, which is not great but "would be the best in three years, the analyst stated. "Add to that HD's continued share gains, particularly driven by pro-related initiatives and we see more upside than downside to HD's 2026 outlook," he further wrote.

Telsey Advisory Group: Home Depot reported earnings of $2.72 per share, topping consensus of $2.53 per share, Feldman said. Profitability was better than expected, with operating margins of 10.5% versus consensus of 10.3%.

"Underlying demand was stable through 4Q25 and was negatively impacted by the lack of storm activity and consumer uncertainty," the analyst wrote. Management reiterated the 2026 guidance, reflecting a stable home improvement market with ongoing housing pressure.

BofA Securities: Home Depot's transactions declined 1.6% in the quarter but the impact was offset by a 2.4% rise in ticket size, "given some price increases, trade-up for new product, and greater mix of higher ticket items, Ohmes said.  Comps improved through the quarter, from a decline of 0.2% in November to 1.3% growth in January, he added.

"HD reaffirmed its prelim 2026 outlook (comp flat to +2%) with 2H comp slightly higher than 1H given easier comparison (absence of storm activity)," the analyst wrote. The company's adjusted operating margin outlook of 12.8%-13% reflects gross margin of 33.1%, down 24 basis points, he further stated.

HD Price Action: Shares of Home Depot had declined by 2.60% to $374.48 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

Image: Shutterstock

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