Cuban border guards killed four people and wounded six others on a Florida-registered speedboat Wednesday morning after a firefight off Villa Clara province, according to Cuba’s Interior Ministry.
Havana says a five-person patrol unit spotted the boat, tagged FL7726SH, roughly one nautical mile from Cayo Falcones and moved to identify it.
The crew allegedly opened fire first, wounding the Cuban commander, and the guards shot back.
The identities and nationalities of the dead remain unknown.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket traders moved fast. The “US strike on Cuba by December 31” contract sits at 34%, up 13% today.
A separate “Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?” market is at 11%.
Bettors also give a 63% chance that Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel is out of power by year-end.
Why This Matters
The Caribbean is already the most militarized it has been in decades.
The US task force deployed to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 remains in the region, and Operation Southern Spear has killed over 150 people since September according to military reporting.
Trump has been turning that pressure directly on Havana.
He signed an executive order on January 29 declaring a national emergency over Cuba and imposed an oil blockade on the island.
Cuba relied on Venezuela for roughly half its fuel, and that lifeline is now severed.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after the Maduro capture that if he lived in Havana, he’d “be concerned.” President Trump said Cuba “looks like it’s ready to fall.”
A Florida-registered boat getting into a firefight with Cuban authorities in that environment is the kind of incident that can shift the calculus quickly.
Defense Names To Watch
Escalating Caribbean tensions have been a tailwind for defense stocks.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) recently hit all-time highs near $666 and guided for up to $80 billion in 2026 revenue with a record $194 billion backlog.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) is trading around $730 near 52-week highs.
RTX Corporation (NYSE:RTX) would likely see renewed interest if Caribbean operations escalate further.
There has been no official White House response to the shooting as of publication.
This is the first confirmed exchange of fire between Cuban forces and a US-tagged vessel during the current escalation.
Image: Shutterstock
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