“Iran’s murderous terrorist leaders are paying for their crimes against America, and they are paying in blood,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Wednesday as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran entered its sixth day.

She said U.S. goals include destroying Iran’s ballistic missile program, “annihilating” its naval presence, and preventing a nuclear weapon.

Bettors Don’t Expect A Quick Ceasefire

Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran ceasefire market tells the story.

Traders give just a 28% chance of a ceasefire by March 31, rising to 63% by May 31 and 68% by June 30. The market has drawn over $12 million in volume.

That timeline is consistent with Trump’s own signals. He has suggested the campaign could last from four to five weeks. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday the U.S. is “winning decisively” and that more forces are arriving.

A ground invasion by March 31 trades at just 9%.

Energy Crisis

The conflict has effectively shut down he Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude.

RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft said “We’re now facing what looks like the biggest energy crisis since the oil embargo in the 1970s.”

WTI crude futures traded above $76 this morning. United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) is up 32% this year.

On Polymarket, bettors price an 83% chance crude hits $80 by end of June and a 57% chance it reaches $90.

Iraq is already cutting output by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day because it has nowhere to export crude with the strait closed.

Goldman Sachs analysts forecast prices to trade in the mid-$80s during March as the market balances signs of partial shipping recovery against evidence of mounting production losses.

Trump announced Tuesday the U.S. would provide naval escorts and political risk insurance for tankers, but analysts remain skeptical that normalizes traffic anytime soon.

Why Trump May Need This Over Fast

High oil prices feed directly into inflation, and inflation kills any chance of the rate cuts Trump has been demanding.

Oxford Economics’ Bridget Payne told Benzinga that if disruptions persist long enough to create genuine shortages, central banks would likely reconsider plans to cut rates.

Trump seemed to acknowledge the bind Tuesday: “If we have a little high oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than ever before.”

Polymarket’s ceasefire odds rise sharply after the first few weeks, suggesting bettors think that Trump will be forced to reopen the strait before $80 oil turns into a political liability.

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