We knew the risks were there.

For months I have said the two biggest threats to this market were bad policy and a shooting war in the Middle East. Now we have both. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Roughly twenty percent of the world's oil and LNG flows through that narrow passage. Insurance markets are tightening. The headlines are relentless.

And as I noted in this week's Yield Report, there is no expiration date on this conflict.

Markets hate uncertainty. When bombs start falling, investors hit the sell button first and ask questions later.

So far, oil has spiked but has not gone vertical. Inflation expectations are beginning to creep higher again. Valuations, which were already stretched in several corners of the market, are now being reassessed.

This is what volatility looks like when it is tied to real geopolitical risk rather than another round of Federal Reserve jawboning.

But here is the key point: panic creates price dislocations.

And price dislocations create opportunity.

One of the most reliable ways to identify those opportunities is to follow the insiders.

Corporate insiders understand their businesses better than anyone. They see order flow. They understand margin pressures. They know whether demand is stabilizing or deteriorating. They have a front-row seat to capital allocation decisions.

When insiders buy aggressively with their own money—especially ahead of a macro shock—it tells us something important. It tells us that at prevailing prices they believe the stock is undervalued relative to long-term prospects.

In calm markets, insider buying can be overlooked. In volatile markets, it becomes even more meaningful. When stocks sell off on headlines rather than fundamentals, prior insider accumulation can serve as a roadmap.

If executives were stepping up before the bombs started falling, and the underlying business outlook has not structurally changed, the sell-off may represent an opportunity rather than a warning.

In the week before the attacks on Iran began, we saw meaningful insider buying across several companies that were already trading at reasonable valuations. Now, with war-driven fear layered on top, the risk-reward setup has improved further.

Let's look at four of them.

CoStar Group (NASDAQ:CSGP)

Insiders at CoStar Group were active buyers in the days leading up to the escalation in the Middle East.

CoStar is the dominant provider of commercial real estate data, analytics, and marketplace platforms. Its subscription-based model generates recurring revenue and benefits from high switching costs across the commercial property ecosystem.

The commercial real estate market has endured a brutal reset, particularly in the office segment. Transaction activity slowed dramatically as interest rates surged and financing tightened. That uncertainty has weighed on the stock.

Insider buying into that backdrop suggests confidence that real estate transaction activity—and the demand for high-quality data—will normalize over time.

The recent market sell-off has pushed CSGP lower alongside broader risk assets, even though geopolitical conflict in the Middle East does little to impair the long-term need for commercial real estate intelligence.

When insiders accumulate ahead of a macro shock and the core business thesis remains intact, that is exactly the type of setup we look for in Alpha Buying.

Hamilton Lane (NASDAQ:HLNE)

Hamilton Lane also saw notable insider purchases before geopolitical tensions intensified.

The firm is a global private markets investment manager with exposure to private equity, private credit, and infrastructure. Its business model is built around managing institutional capital across long-duration alternative investment vehicles.

In periods of market stress, public asset managers often see their stocks decline alongside broader equities. Concerns around private market valuations and liquidity can amplify that pressure.

But insiders buying ahead of this sell-off suggests confidence in the firm's fee streams, fundraising pipeline, and long-term growth trajectory.

Institutional investors continue allocating capital toward alternatives in search of diversification and return enhancement. That structural trend has not changed because of geopolitical conflict.

Insider accumulation signals that management believes the franchise value of the business is materially higher than where the market is currently pricing the stock.

Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO)

Vornado Realty Trust is no stranger to controversy.

New York office real estate has been under pressure for years as remote work reshaped demand and financing costs climbed. Investors have debated everything from asset valuations to long-term occupancy trends.

Yet insiders stepped up meaningfully in the week before the attacks.

That matters.

Vornado owns trophy assets in some of the most valuable real estate markets in the world. Locations like Manhattan remain irreplaceable long-term economic centers.

The debate around VNO has focused heavily on leverage and liquidity. When insiders purchase shares in size, they are effectively signaling that the market is undervaluing the underlying asset base and the long-term cash flow potential of the portfolio.

A war-driven sell-off in REITs does not suddenly change Manhattan's role as a global business hub. If anything, rising construction costs and energy prices can increase replacement values for prime assets.

Insider conviction before the headlines broke provides a useful anchor as fear pushes prices lower.

Claritev Corporation (NYSE:CTEV)

Claritev Corporation also experienced insider buying in the week leading into the conflict.

The company operates in healthcare technology and cost management—an industry where demand remains resilient regardless of geopolitical events. Employers, insurers, and healthcare systems still require data, analytics, and cost containment solutions.

Healthcare utilization does not collapse because of events in the Middle East.

Insider purchases here suggest confidence in the durability of cash flows and the company's strategic positioning within a mission-critical industry.

When markets sell everything indiscriminately during periods of uncertainty, companies with stable demand profiles and insider support often recover more quickly once volatility subsides.

The Alpha Buying Takeaway

War creates uncertainty.
Uncertainty creates volatility.
Volatility creates opportunity.

We are not blind to the risks. Higher oil prices can feed inflation. Inflation can constrain Federal Reserve policy. Valuations in parts of the market were already stretched before the conflict began.

That is precisely why selective, data-driven buying matters.

Insider accumulation in the week before the attacks gives us a powerful signal. Executives were committing personal capital at prices that now look even more attractive after the market's reaction.

Unless the war fundamentally alters the economics of these businesses—which in these cases it does not—the sell-off may prove excessive.

Alpha Buying has always been about stacking the odds in our favor. Combining insider conviction with macro-driven dislocations is one of the cleanest ways to do that.

When fear is high and headlines are loud, we follow the money.

And right now, the insiders have already shown us where they believe value exists.