Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has surged 7% since the start of the month as macro analyst Benjamin Cowen warned this mirrors the “bull trap” pattern that preceded massive sell-offs in every prior midterm cycle.

The Midterm Bear Market Playbook

Bitcoin is trading roughly 15% below its $87,500 yearly open, hitting the exact mathematical target for an early March relief rally. 

Cowen argues Bitcoin’s 2026 price action identically mirrors the post-halving patterns of 2014, 2018, and 2022.

The structural pattern repeats across cycles: Bitcoin peaks in Q4 of the post-halving year (late 2025 this cycle). 

The asset grinds down to establish local lows in early and late February. This cycle, BTC printed lower lows at $80,000 and $60,000.

Then comes the March bull trap. A sharp, FOMO-inducing counter-trend rally spikes the price between March 2 and March 5. 

The rally sets a lower high, gets violently rejected, and capitulates to new lows through April and May.

Today’s 7% daily green candle fits perfectly into this phase. Cowen notes this exact emotional whiplash defines bear markets: wrecking late sellers, forcing them to buy back higher, and then dumping the asset again.

What’s Driving The Rejection?

Macro headwinds remain entirely intact. Despite the end of quantitative tightening, the Federal Reserve has not aggressively restarted money printing, and interest rates remain restrictive.

Traders who panic-sold the drop to $60,000 are now chasing the rally back into the $70,000 range. 

This is exactly what bear markets are designed to do—trap buyers at local highs before the next leg down.

The pattern is highly predictable according to historical precedent. The euphoria top occurs in Q4, February establishes lows, March delivers the bull trap rally, and spring brings capitulation to new lows.

The Next Level To Watch

Bitcoin is attempting a rebound near $72,000 after defending the $61,000 demand zone, but Supertrend remains above price near $61,513 while Parabolic SAR sits around $62,766, showing the broader structure is still under bearish control despite the recent bounce.

If historical resistance holds, Bitcoin will soon form a lower high in the $70,000s before resuming its downtrend.

Cowen flags $40,000 as a potential target for the next major capitulation wick. A drop to that level could finally trigger the capitulation indicators required to forge a durable, long-term cycle bottom.

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