The artificial intelligence spending war is entering a new phase. And it’s no longer just about chips.

Gene Munster, managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management, said Wednesday that next year’s Big Tech capital expenditure will come in “meaningfully higher than where the Street is at.” He pointed directly to the White House’s newly announced Ratepayer Protection Pledge as a key driver.

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White House Pledge Triggers a New CapEx Cycle

On Wednesday, the Trump administration unveiled a voluntary agreement with major technology companies. The deal aims to prevent AI data centers from raising electricity costs for U.S. consumers.

Companies signing the pledge include Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Alphabet Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google, Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), ChatGPT-parent OpenAI and Elon Musk‘s xAI .

Under the agreement, companies must build, bring or buy their own power. They must also pay for all grid infrastructure upgrades. Costs cannot be passed on to regular ratepayers.

Munster Sees 2026 CapEx at 65% Growth

Munster laid out his projections on Wednesday on X.

He expects mega-cap tech to increase capex by roughly 65% in 2026. That compares to 70% growth last year.

His 2027 outlook is where he diverges sharply from consensus. “The Street is expecting mega cap capex to increase by 14%,” Munster wrote. “I expect it to be 40%.”

Munster noted that currently Alphabet is at 13%, Amazon at 6%, Meta at 13% and Microsoft at 19%.

The Shift: From Silicon to Power

Munster framed this as a structural turning point.

“Tech is happy to pay for power,” he wrote. “This marks a shift in the AI Arms Race by laying from silicon to power.”

He added the pledge will “increase our reliance on Google, Meta, Amazon and Meta” and that “the cost will translate to higher capex for longer.”

The backdrop supports that view. The U.S. brought online a record 10 gigawatts of new data center capacity in 2025. December alone registered the largest single monthly increase ever recorded. Total U.S. electricity demand rose 2.8% year over year — the fastest growth rate in roughly 20 years.

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