United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UAL) shares are trading lower Thursday afternoon, underperforming a weak tape as a geopolitical-driven oil spike reignited worries about airline fuel bills and profit margins.

U.S. crude jumped 6.5% on Wednesday to about $79.70 per barrel, its highest level since January 2025. The move puts oil up roughly 18% for the week, marking its strongest rally since early 2022. Here’s what investors need to know.

Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Surge, Airline Sell-off

Wednesday’s catalyst was the intensifying U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict and the resulting disruption risk around the Persian Gulf. Hundreds of vessels were reported anchored while the U.S. Navy escorted tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the market's fear of tighter near-term supply and higher refined-product prices.

Those dynamics translate quickly into higher jet fuel costs, typically an airline's largest variable expense, prompting the market to mark down carriers on the assumption that any fare increases could lag the cost surge.

Beyond fuel, the war is also complicating travel: Qatar's airspace stayed closed and Qatar Airways said Doha departures remained suspended, while launching relief flights from Muscat and Riyadh for stranded passengers.

Airline Stocks Sink As Fuel Costs Surge

Airlines were hit across the board on Wednesday: the U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE:JETS) sank more than 5% on its worst session since April 2025, and United AIrlines 6% on margin concerns tied to surging fuel.

Macro headwinds compounded the sell-off. With inflation risk rising alongside energy, Treasury yields climbed (10-year to 4.143%), and rate traders cut expectations for Fed easing to just one cut in 2026, an especially tough backdrop for economically sensitive travel names.

United Airlines Pullback Signals Weakening Technical Momentum

United Airlines stock has trended higher over the past year, climbing from a low of $56.15 to a high of $117.53, with the price generally holding above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages during the uptrend.

Recently, however, the stock has pulled back below the $100 level, slipping below the 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages, signaling weakening technical momentum.

Recent Analyst Moves Keep United Airlines Buy

Here is a breakdown of United Airlines’ recent analyst ratings, all of which maintain a Buy status for the stock:

  • March 5 (Rothschild & Co): Lowered the target price from $125 to $110.
  • Jan. 22 (TD Cowen): Raised the target price from $138 to $140.
  • Jan. 22 (UBS): Raised the target price from $145 to $147.
  • Jan. 22 (Argus Research): Lowered the target price from $140 to $135.
  • Jan. 13 (Goldman Sachs): Raised the target price from $115 to $129.

UAL Shares Plunge

UAL Price Action: United Airlines Holdings shares were down 5.27% at $95.19 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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