Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down to $68,000, with the recent rally only a relief bounce within a broader bearish market structure, according to a prominent analyst.

Competing Market Narratives              

Trader Mayne said on Thursday Bitcoin's rebound from the Iran conflict lows has created two opposing narratives in the market.

One group believes the breakout signals the end of a multi-month range and the start of a move higher.

The other views the rally as a temporary bounce within a broader bear trend.

Mayne sides with the bearish higher-timeframe view, arguing that Bitcoin recently confirmed a monthly market structure break, a signal that historically indicates the broader trend remains down.

He noted that short-term momentum could still push Bitcoin higher, potentially toward the $77,000 to $80,000 range or even slightly above.

However, such a move would likely form a "lower high" within a wider bearish structure.

Bottom Still Forming?

In the near term, Mayne said he is cautiously bullish if Bitcoin holds its recent range breakout and successfully retests that level.

If the price fails to hold and falls back into the previous range, it will likely signal a bearish deviation, potentially sending Bitcoin back toward the range lows.

Looking further, Mayne said the bear market bottom is probably not in yet.

His base case is either a prolonged bottoming range or another leg down into the $50,000 to $40,000 zone, with a final bottom potentially forming later in 2026.

He added that traders should focus on chart structure rather than headlines, noting that news events often act only as catalysts for moves technical levels already anticipate.

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