Sonali Basak, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, posted a measured check on X Monday morning.

“The S&P 500 is less than 5% off its intraday heights, and >150 points above its 200-day moving average,” Basak wrote. “We are far from capitulation.”

The index, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) is trading on Monday at 6,697.79, down 42.23 points or 0.63%. The Nasdaq-100, as tracked by Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) slipped 0.33% to 24,562.15.

Sentiment Vs. Structure

Basak acknowledged the mood is tense — but separated noise from data.

“There’s a lot of challenging sentiment out there, because there’s a lot of uncertainty,” she said. “The environment could change in any direction, honestly.”

Technically, the S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average — a key line institutional traders watch closely.

Oil Shock Adds Pressure

Monday’s crude surge complicated the picture.

Both WTI and Brent held above $100 per barrel. Earlier in the session, prices briefly spiked near $120, according to data from Trading Economics. Major Middle Eastern producers cut output after the Strait of Hormuz remained shut amid the ongoing Iran war.

The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) surged 5.08% to $114.40.

Crude has jumped roughly 50% since U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began February 28.

Geopolitical Backdrop Keeps Escalating

The conflict driving oil higher showed no signs of cooling Monday.

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was named Iran’s new Supreme Leader after his father was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes, according to state media. President Donald Trump said Monday that Mojtaba would need U.S. approval to remain in power.

Bahrain’s Bapco Energies declared force majeure after an Iranian drone struck its Sitra refinery. Saudi Arabia’s military intercepted a drone near the Shaybah Oilfield.

G7 finance ministers are set to discuss a coordinated release from emergency oil reserves through the International Energy Agency, according to the Financial Times.

Photo: Shutterstock