Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) four-year market cycle still appears intact, but 2026 may be too early to declare the end of the bear market, according to a prominent analyst.

Bitcoin Cycle Still Aligns With History

Benjamin Cowen said on Thursday that Bitcoin’s long-standing cycle pattern remains largely consistent with previous market cycles, despite claims on social media that the structure has broken.

According to Cowen, many investors believe the cycle failed because Bitcoin did not reach the extreme price targets they expected or because altcoins underperformed.

However, historical data suggests the cycle has followed a similar timeline to past market peaks.

Cowen noted that Bitcoin's major cycle tops have historically occurred in Q4 of the post-halving year, including 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025.

Measured from cycle low to peak, the latest cycle topped around day 1,162, nearly identical to previous cycles, differing by roughly a week. This close alignment suggests the four-year cycle structure remains intact, he said.

While the current drawdown has been milder than some previous bear markets, Bitcoin's price behaviour still broadly mirrors historical patterns.

In past U.S. midterm election years, 2014, 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin typically bottomed in February, rallied into March and then moved lower again, a pattern Cowen believes could be repeating in 2026.

Indicators Suggest The Bottom May Not Be In

Cowen said some metrics hint that Bitcoin could be approaching a bottom, but several historically reliable indicators have not yet reached typical bear-market levels.

In previous cycles, major bottoms occurred when metrics such as the MVRV Z-score fell below zero, supply in profit and loss crossed, and price moved close to the balance price.

Those conditions have not fully materialized in the current cycle, he said.

Cowen added that bear markets often feature long upward trends followed by sudden breakdowns, making them difficult to identify in real time.

Given the historical timing of midterm-year cycles, he believes it is still too early in 2026 to confidently call a market bottom, even as bullish narratives gain traction.

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