On December 5, 2025, we published a commentary on Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) titled "Why Adobe's Downtrend Isn't Something You Can ‘Edit' Away." At the time, our analysis highlighted structural weaknesses in the stock under the Adhishthana framework.
Since then, the thesis has largely played out. Adobe shares have declined by more than 33%, and the stock recently returned to the headlines after dropping nearly 7.5% in a single session following the announcement that the company's CEO would be stepping down.
With the stock now under renewed pressure, it is worth revisiting Adobe's positioning within the Adhishthana cycle to understand what may lie ahead.
Weekly Chart Outlook: Weak Triads Continue to Cap Upside
In our earlier commentary, we noted that Adobe had formed a very weak triad structure on the weekly charts.
Within the Adhishthana framework, Phases 14, 15, and 16 form what are known as the Guna Triads. These three phases determine whether a stock can achieve Nirvana in Phase 18, the peak stage of the cycle. For such a move to materialize, the triads must display Satoguna, characterized by a sustained and structurally clean bullish trend.
In Adobe's case, that bullish character was largely absent during the triad formation. As a result, the probability of a powerful expansion in Phase 18 was significantly reduced. Instead, the framework suggested that the stock would spend Phase 18 in sluggish and range-bound conditions.
That expectation continues to hold. Phase 18 on the weekly charts does not conclude until November 8, 2026, and the stock has so far traded with the kind of uneven and sluggish behavior that the framework anticipated.
However, the weekly chart is not the primary concern. The monthly structure appears even weaker, offering additional context for the ongoing decline.
Monthly Chart: The Decline Leg of the Himalayan Formation
On the monthly charts, Adobe is currently in Phase 12 of its Adhishthana cycle and appears to be navigating the descent phase of the Himalayan Formation.
This formation typically begins when a stock breaks out of its Cakra structure during Phase 9. It unfolds in three distinct stages: a powerful rise, the formation of a peak, and finally a prolonged decline, much like the rise and fall of the Himalayan range itself.
In Adobe's case, the stock formed its peak on the monthly charts in Phase 11 at $699.54. Since that peak, the trend has clearly shifted downward, suggesting that the decline leg of the formation is now underway.
Under the framework, the downside target for this decline phase generally gravitates toward the level where the initial rally and Cakra breakout originated. Based on Adobe's structure, that zone still lies meaningfully below current levels, implying that the broader corrective process may not yet be complete.
Investor Outlook
With leadership uncertainty now entering the narrative and the stock positioned in the decline phase of its broader Adhishthana cycle, the outlook for Adobe remains cautious.
In our previous commentary, we noted that short-lived rallies, including post-earnings spikes, were unlikely to sustain. So far, the stock's behavior has continued to validate that view.
Given the current structural setup, investors may want to avoid aggressively chasing the stock at this stage. Until the cycle progresses further and clearer structural signals emerge, Adobe is likely to remain in a sluggish and corrective environment rather than a sustained recovery phase for now.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
Login to comment