Gas Could Hit $4 Per Gallon As US Not 'Insulated' From Oil Prices: GasBuddy Analyst

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, is warning drivers that national gasoline prices could reach $3.80–$3.85 per gallon. He says $4 per gallon remains possible but is not imminent. Diesel could climb to $5.05–$5.15 per gallon.

De Haan made the forecast in a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday.

National Average Hits Highest Level Since October 2023

GasBuddy data shows the national average gasoline price has already reached $3.70 per gallon. That is the highest level since Oct. 6, 2023.

The national average has risen 23.2 cents over the past week and 80.0 cents from a month ago. It stands 66.1 cents higher than a year ago, De Haan wrote on Substack.

“Americans today will spend $307 million more on gasoline than a month ago,” De Haan posted on X.

The national average diesel price now stands at $4.951 per gallon, up 34.0 cents in the last week. Diesel is approaching the $5 per gallon mark nationally.

Midwest Price Hikes Push Pump Prices Higher

De Haan flagged sharp price increases across the Midwest on Monday. He cited the summer gasoline changeover and the Iran situation as dual drivers.

He said price hikes are now beginning in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, and Missouri. He expects these increases to push the national average to $3.75–$3.80 by mid-week.

When asked whether falling oil prices could offset the increases, De Haan replied: “yes- oil and products don’t always move together, and there’s more coming down that retailers haven’t passed on yet.”

He added the full impact would likely materialize “in the next ~week.”

Middle East Tensions And Hormuz Disruptions Keep Pressure On

The broader price spike is tied directly to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

De Haan said in his Substack post published Monday: “Until we see a meaningful resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist. At the same time, seasonal forces are beginning to intensify as several regions complete the transition to summer gasoline, creating a double headwind that could continue driving pump prices higher in the weeks ahead.”

De Haan also noted that Asian countries have, in some cases, issued restrictions on fuel consumption and sales, while he said the U.S. “is a bit more insulated from supply, but not price.”

Energy funds trade mixed on Monday, with oil and natural gas ETFs mostly lower:

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