Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video to X on Sunday picking up a coffee order to debunk an Iranian conspiracy theory claiming he had been killed in a strike.

The rumor, pushed by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, included claims that a previous video of the Israeli prime minister was AI-generated because it allegedly showed him with six fingers.

Meanwhile on Polymarket, a single account called “dududududu22” is sitting on $151,000 in positions betting Netanyahu will be “out” before the end of this month.

His position, nearly 3.8 million shares bought at 4.7 cents, is currently underwater by about $26,000.

If he’s correct his position would be worth $3.8 million.

In a troll of the Iranian rumors, Netanyahu's coffee shop video featured a linguistic Easter egg. When ordering his drink, he used the Hebrew slang word ‘met’, a term that translates to both ‘love’ and ‘dead’.

The joke masked a grim reality driving this market’s volatility.

In that broadcast, Netanyahu instructed the Israeli public to remain near bomb shelters and confirmed the IDF would continue striking “very hard.”

What ‘Out’ Means Is The Problem

The contract resolves “Yes” if Netanyahu resigns, is removed, or steps down. It does not mention death.

Netanyahu was recently re-elected Likud leader and plans to run again in October, but the contract expires in 16 days. That leaves very few scenarios for a “Yes” resolution that don’t involve something extreme.

Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated rival, got hit with a $54 million class action lawsuit, after invoking a death carveout on its Khamenei contract. Polymarket’s Netanyahu market carries no such carveout.

This is the exact type of contract that six U.S. senators recently demanded the CFTC ban. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) is drafting legislation to outlaw war and death-adjacent betting after blockchain analysis revealed suspected insiders made $1.2 million on the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran.

Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) and Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) have both built prediction market offerings through Kalshi partnerships. The regulatory heat around these contracts may complicate that bet.

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