When the Iran war erupted, many assumed it would have a quick resolution. Three weeks on, that assumption is crumbling.
The spread between stocks that benefit from a closed Strait of Hormuz and those that need it open has ballooned to more than 32 percentage points, a divergence that suggests investors are repositioning for a conflict measured in months, not days.
A basket of 10 names positioned for a closed or severely disrupted Strait — energy refiners, fertilizer producers, chemicals, defense and drone companies — has risen an average of 17.55%.
A basket of 10 names positioned for Gulf shipping normalization — cruise lines, airlines, logistics companies and gold — has fallen an average of 15.35%.
Hormuz ‘Reopen’ vs. ‘Closed’ Stock Basket Comparison: How These 20 Stocks Fared So Far
Source: Country ETF Tracker’s Iran War Market Screener
The ‘Hormuz Closed’ Basket: Who Wins When Strait Stays Shut
Energy refiners, fertilizer producers, defense-adjacent technology companies, and drone manufacturers dominate this basket.
Their shared characteristic: each benefits directly or indirectly from elevated oil prices, maritime disruption, or increased military spending.
| Company | Sector | Return Since Feb. 27 close |
|---|---|---|
| Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ:RCAT) | Defense / Drones | +40.95% |
| CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) | Fertilizers / Nat. Gas | +25.53% |
| LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB) | Petrochemicals | +24.13% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC) | Refining | +18.15% |
| Karman Space & Defense (NYSE:KRMN) | Defense / Aerospace | +16.06% |
| Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) | Refining | +15.44% |
| Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) | Defense Tech / AI | +12.84% |
| Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) | Refining / Midstream | +12.25% |
| Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) | Integrated Energy | +6.33% |
| Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS) | Fertilizers / Potash | +3.81% |
Red Cat Holdings leads the basket with a 40.95% gain — a striking move driven by surging demand expectations for military drone systems.
Fertilizer producers CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Mosaic Co. gain as ammonia and potash supply chains routed through the Gulf face severe disruption.
Refiners like Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. benefit from crack spread expansion as Middle Eastern refined product flows are disrupted, pushing up refinery margins for domestic processors.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is up 12.84% as defense AI contract speculation rises.
The ‘Hormuz Reopen” Basket: Who Needs The Strait Open
Airlines, cruise operators, and surface freight companies form the core of this basket.
Higher jet fuel costs, rerouted shipping lanes, and weakening consumer confidence in international travel have hit each name with compounding force.
| Company | Sector | Return |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE:ALK) | Airlines | −23.80% |
| Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) | Cruise Lines | −20.14% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) | Cruise Lines | −17.37% |
| American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) | Airlines | −17.05% |
| United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:UPS) | Freight / Logistics | −15.48% |
| Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM) | Gold Mining | −14.83% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ:JBHT) | Trucking / Freight | −14.16% |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) | Airlines | −12.32% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) | Cruise Lines | −9.22% |
| Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASDAQ:ODFL) | LTL Freight | −9.18% |
The reopen basket captures names whose earnings models depend on open supply chains, cheap fuel and global travel normalization.
Alaska Air Group Inc. has fallen 23.80% — the sharpest decline across both baskets — as jet fuel costs surge and the economics of transatlantic and transpacific routes deteriorate. The three major U.S. airlines in the basket have lost between 12% and 24% of their value over the past three weeks.
Cruise lines have been hit almost as hard. Carnival Corp. is down 20.14% as Gulf itineraries become unviable and fuel-cost forecasts are revised sharply higher.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. has shed 17.37%.
Logistics names — United Parcel Service Inc., Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. and J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. — have all fallen between 9% and 16% as global freight disruption and recessionary demand risk weigh simultaneously.
The gas pump tells the same story for American households. The national average for regular gasoline rose to $3.79 per gallon on Tuesday, the highest since October 2023, according to AAA.
How Long Could The Iran War Last? What Prediction Markets And Analysts Are Saying
The sharpest signal on duration comes from prediction markets, where traders have sharply marked down the probability of a quick resolution.
Polymarket currently assigns a 26% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30.
This means participants believe there is a 74% chance the waterway remains functionally disrupted for at least six more weeks.
The odds of a U.S. Navy escort by the end of this month stand at just 20%.
“We initially estimated the conflict to last 1–3 weeks, with a maximum of two months. As the war unfolds, we now expect something closer to roughly two months, though the dynamics remain self-limiting,” said Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, in a note this week.
“Iran seems increasingly to be dictating the tempo. The regime is willing to absorb punishment to inflict economic and political pain,” he added.
Last week, Goldman Sachs revised its Brent price forecast upward by 20%, projecting an average of $100 per barrel in March, declining to $85 in April, on the assumption of a three-week disruption.
The bank warned that if the closure extends to two months, its end-of-year forecast would rise from $71 to $93 per barrel.
Tyler Goodspeed, chief economist at ExxonMobil, told CNBC that there are “many more scenarios, and more probable scenarios, in which the Strait remains effectively closed harder for longer” than there are scenarios where normal traffic resumes quickly.
Until either diplomacy or naval force changes the facts on the ground in the Strait, the spread between these two baskets is the clearest real-time measure of how long Wall Street expects this war to last.
Photo: Below the Sky on Shutterstock.com
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