Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) rally to $76,000 follows the same pattern as the 2022 and 2018 midterm years, where February lows led to March rallies that ultimately formed lower highs before crashes, according to prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen.

The Stablecoin Dominance Pattern

Stablecoin dominance (USDT + USDC) exploded from 8.5% to 12.5% after sweeping prior highs, exactly as Cowen predicted two months ago when Bitcoin traded above $90,000. 

The current pullback in stablecoin dominance mirrors patterns seen in Bitcoin dominance, palladium, and the Hang Seng Index over the past four years.

“When I look at stablecoin dominance, I would have to say objectively, it’s hard to say that this won’t just be a higher low,” Cowen said. 

“If it takes out the low, then I’m wrong. But for now, this simply looks like what we’ve previously seen in other markets that exhibited a very similar pattern,” he added.

The pattern works like this: an asset sets a high, sells off, sets another high, sells off again but forms a higher low, then breaks through highs convincingly.

One final pullback makes everyone think it’s a fakeout before it explodes higher from the bull market support band.

The Midterm Year Comparison

Bitcoin found a low in February 2026, identical to February lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022. The asset then rallied into March and got rejected at the bull market support band, forming a lower high before selling off into summer.

In 2022, Bitcoin set a low, then a higher low coinciding with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It swept prior highs but ultimately formed a lower high. 

In 2026, Bitcoin set a low, then a higher low coinciding with the U.S.-Iran conflict, and swept prior highs reaching $76,000.

“Bitcoin topped to within plus or minus one week of the last two market cycle tops in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year,” Cowen explained. “Bitcoin found a low in February, which is when it always finds a low in bear markets.”

The 2018 Parallel

The 2018 comparison is striking. Bitcoin found a low at $6,000, just as it found a low at $60,000 this cycle. 

It then rallied to the bull market support band in March and formed a lower high.

The bull market support band sits at $83,000. As long as Bitcoin trades below that level, nothing has changed technically. 

This remains a lower high structure, just as stablecoin dominance maintains a higher low structure.

The Underperformance Data

Bitcoin is down against every major asset class year-to-date. Bitcoin fell 27% against gold, 35% against energy stocks, 23% against silver, and 13% against the S&P 500 in 2026.

Bitcoin’s gold valuation swept the highs and will likely oscillate back down to the lows, potentially another 30% decline. 

The pattern mirrors the ETH-Bitcoin market cap ratio, which Cowen correctly called as topping in 2022 and bottoming in April 2025.

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