Fed Chair Powell Says If Don't See Inflation Progress Won't See The Rate Cut; Part Of Oil Shock Is In The Forecast For Higher Inflation, But Also That Haven't Seen Hoped For Progress On Inflation; Fed Wants to See Cooler Goods Inflation as Tariff Uncertainty Recedes; A Reflection Of Slow Progress On Tariffs; We Believe We Will See Progress On Tariff Inflation, But May Take More Time; Really Want To Emphasize No One Knows Economic Effect Of Middle East Conflict