Promotional activity among the "Big 3" U.S. carriers—AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) and T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS)—is gaining momentum heading into the second quarter of 2026, reflecting intensifying competition in the postpaid market.

Elevated churn remains a key driver, as many subscribers roll off 36-month financing plans and re-enter the market for device upgrades. The expiration of these plans also removes switching barriers, allowing customers to change carriers without paying off outstanding balances.

Counterpoint Research introduced a promotional index within its US Weekly Smartphone Promotions Tracker to quantify consumer-facing value. Scored from 0 to 100, the index evaluates both monetary benefits and friction in accessing offers. Higher scores indicate more competitive promotions across postpaid and prepaid segments, OEMs and devices.

While early 2026 postpaid promotions initially trailed last year, trends are improving year over year. A later launch of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (OTC:SSNLF) Galaxy S26 series contributed to stronger pre-launch promotional activity, driven by higher device subsidies and fewer eligibility requirements. This aligns with prior commentary from AT&T's John Stankey.

Prepaid Promotions Consolidate Around Key Devices

In contrast, prepaid promotions have softened year over year as carriers reallocate marketing spend. Activity is increasingly concentrated on a limited set of "champion devices," with brands that fail to support broader portfolios losing visibility. Motorola continues to sustain aggressive discounts even on older models, while smaller players such as Orbic are seeing reduced promotional support.

Samsung Price Hikes Met With Higher Subsidies

Samsung raised prices across parts of its Galaxy S26 lineup, including a 5% increase for the S26 256GB and a 10% increase for the S26 Plus 256GB. U.S. carriers responded by boosting subsidies to maintain competitive offers. T-Mobile promotion for the S26 Ultra reached a top index score of 100, supported by a $1,300 discount without requiring trade-ins on premium plans. Verizon and AT&T also increased subsidies and eased plan and trade-in requirements to offset higher device prices.

Apple Maintains Pricing, Promotions Diverge

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 17e launched at flat pricing year over year, with a $100 price cut for the 512GB variant. As a result, promotional intensity varied. AT&T's offer remained unchanged, leading to a lower relative index score, while Verizon and T-Mobile enhanced competitiveness through non-subsidy levers.

Looking ahead, Counterpoint expects postpaid promotional strength to exceed H1 2025 levels. However, macroeconomic pressures, rising memory costs and supply constraints may temper overall market volumes despite aggressive carrier incentives.