Steve Eisman, the portfolio manager made famous by “The Big Short,” called the Iran war a “unipolar market” on his podcast The Real Eisman Playbook.

The framing marks a sharp reversal. In early March, Eisman told CNBC the conflict would be “very, very positive” and said he wouldn’t change a single trade. Four weeks of $100-plus oil appears to have changed the calculus.

Brent crude traded near $113 per barrel on Monday, up roughly 55% in March. That is the largest monthly surge in the contract’s history, surpassing the 46% gain recorded during the first Gulf War in September 1990.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) is the only S&P 500 sector in the green this month, while the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) has tracked crude’s historic March run.

What Prediction Markets Say

Bettors on Polymarket give 71% odds that U.S. forces enter Iran by April 30, which would mean a significant escalation in the war.

A separate contract on regime change before 2027 sits at just 34%. Traders are pricing a grind, not a swift collapse.

On Kalshi, odds that Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic normalizes before April 15 sit below 12%. By June 1, that rises to 47% — implying at least two more months of disrupted flows through the chokepoint that normally handles 20% of global crude.

Kalshi’s recession market has jumped above 34%, its highest this year.

What His Expert Said About The Strait

Eisman’s guest was Steven Cook, the Council on Foreign Relations’ senior fellow for Middle East studies. Cook said Iran is building a new transit regime in the Strait where friendly vessels pass freely and adversaries get blocked. He called any deal that locks that in “a total disaster for the United States.”

Gulf states, Cook said, have sent Washington a clear message: we didn’t want this war, but now that you’ve started it, finish it in a way that lets us continue our domestic transformation and our trillion-dollar bets on our societies.

Those bets: Saudi Vision 2030, Abu Dhabi’s tech and finance pivot, all depend on stable energy exports and regional security.

Cook predicted a “messy middle” three months out: a weakened but still dangerous Iran, Gulf states hardening defenses, and a bigger American military footprint than anyone planned for. If Cook is right, the war premium in crude isn’t unwinding anytime soon, and how Iran responds to Trump’s latest threats against its oil infrastructure is the next catalyst to watch.

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