Cryptocurrency bettors remain unconvinced that vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of the month despite President Donald Trump hinting at winding down the Iran campaign.
Will Normalcy Return To Global Oil Trade?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket shows 23% chance of normal traffic resuming on the critical oil shipping route by April 30, up 3 percentage points in the last 24 hours, but down 16 points over the week. The chance of this happening by May 30, however, was higher at 37%.
Nearly $1 million has been wagered on this keenly watched bet. The market resolves to "Yes" if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the route of at least 60.
Based on data up to March 29, the 7-day moving average was only 3.
Trump Says US Has ‘Nothing To Do’ With Strait Of Hormuz
The developments come as Trump suggested he was willing to end military hostilities with Iran, adding the withdrawal could happen “within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three.”
Trump said that the U.S. would leave it up to other nations to manage the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
“If France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, they’ll go through the Strait of Hormuz. They’ll go right up there, and they’ll be able to fend for themselves. I think it’ll be very safe, actually. But we have nothing to do with that,” Trump told reporters.
The critical oil chokepoint, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, has been closed to U.S./Israel-affiliated vessels
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier that the passage is closed to those attacking them, while others are “free to pass.”
Image via Shutterstock/ artemegorovv
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