ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) shares are trading lower Wednesday morning as investors unwind the war premium that had been supporting oil names during the Iran conflict.

Iran De-Escalation Signals Hit Oil

The pressure appears tied to a sharp shift in expectations around Middle East escalation. Late Tuesday, President Donald Trump said the U.S. could wind down its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks and suggested Tehran would not need to accept U.S. terms for that to happen.

Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is ready to end the war if it receives formal security guarantees, helping push WTI crude down 2% to about $100 a barrel while equities rallied hard.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET this evening, with what the White House called “an important update on Iran,” which may offer clarity on the current situation.

Insider Selling

Today, Michael Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO at ConocoPhillips, reported an insider sell on March 31, according to a new SEC filing.

Lance’s decision to sell 113,221 shares of ConocoPhillips was revealed in a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday. The total value of the sale is $15,025,389.

Technical Analysis

COP is trading 3.2% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 24.1% above its 100-day SMA, which keeps the intermediate uptrend intact despite today’s weakness.

Shares are up 21.24% over the past 12 months and are positioned closer to their 52-week highs than lows after tagging a fresh 52-week high on 2026-03-30.

The RSI is at 74.97, which is firmly overbought and often signals stretched momentum rather than an automatic sell signal. MACD remains bullish with the MACD line at 5.6732 above the signal line at 5.1888, and a positive histogram reading of 0.4844.

The combination of overbought RSI (above 70) and bullish MACD suggests mixed momentum, where trend strength is still present but pullback risk is elevated.

  • Key Resistance: $136.00
  • Key Support: $113.00

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the April 30, 2026 (confirmed) earnings report.

  • EPS Estimate: $1.58 (Down from $2.09 YoY)
  • Revenue Estimate: $14.51 Billion (Down from $17.10 Billion YoY)
  • Valuation: P/E of 20.8x (Suggests fair valuation relative to peers)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $120.59. Recent analyst moves include:

  • Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Raises Target to $149.00) (Mar. 27)
  • Truist Securities: Initiated with Hold (Target $124.00) (Mar. 24)
  • Mizuho: Outperform (Raises Target to $136.00) (Mar. 17)

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for ConocoPhillips, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:

  • Momentum: Bullish (Score: 87.99) — The stock’s trend strength is standing out versus the broader market, even with today’s pullback.
  • Value: Bullish (Score: 74/100) — The valuation profile screens favorably versus many peers, supporting the stock on dips.
  • Growth: Bullish (Score: 76.56) — The company’s growth profile is scoring well, which can help sustain investor interest through the cycle.

The Verdict: ConocoPhillips’ Benzinga Edge signal reveals a momentum-driven story with supportive value and growth characteristics. The setup favors trend-followers, but with RSI stretched, bulls typically want to see pullbacks hold above the $113.00 support zone to keep the uptrend clean.

Top ETF Exposure

  • State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLE): 6.77% Weight
  • Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE:VDE): 5.88% Weight

Significance: Because COP carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

COP Price Action: ConocoPhillips shares were down 3.95% at $126.79 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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