U.S. spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs posted $94 million in net outflows on Wednesday despite Bitcoin rallying from $67,800 to $71,000 on U.S.-Iran ceasefire news.

The Outflow Breakdown

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (NYSE:FBTC) recorded the largest outflows at $79 million, followed by ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:ARKB) at $74.7 million. 

Additionally, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:GBTC) posted $11 million in outflows.

Meanwhile, iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) saw positive flows worth $40.4 million.

Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:MSBT) reported $30.6 million in net inflows on its debut, with about $34 million in trading volume for the day. 

This exceeded Bloomberg Senior Analyst Eric Balchunas‘ $30 million estimate.

MSBT was designed to undercut established spot Bitcoin funds with a 0.14% sponsor fee, the lowest among Bitcoin ETPs. 

In comparison, IBIT charges a 0.25% fee. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (NYSE:BTC) was previously the cheapest at 0.15%.

The Profit-Taking Thesis

Institutions appear to be taking profits from the Bitcoin rally rather than joining the momentum, according to LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck. This follows aggressive buying the dip earlier in the week.

“Crypto ETFs saw outflows once traders realized that the ceasefire was far from a done deal,” said Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE. “Israel continued to bomb Lebanon, and the Saudi pipeline was bombed by a drone,” he added.

“Traders are in Extreme Fear territory, as conflicting ceasefire chatter continues to spark sharp, sudden risk-off sentiment,” said Dominick John, analyst at Zeus Research.

The Polymarket View

Polymarket traders give Bitcoin ETF flows only 43% odds of being positive on April 9, down about 7% over the session. 

The probability shows uncertainty rather than clear directional conviction.

Meanwhile, the end-of-April price breakdown shows the highest probability around $75,000 at roughly 61%, followed by $65,000 at 41%. 

Higher price targets above $90,000 carry very low probability, suggesting traders are not pricing in a strong upside move in the near term.

The Technical Picture

Bitcoin trades below the 100 and 200-day EMAs. Price now tests resistance between $70,500 and $74,000, where the 20-day EMA and Supertrend converge. This zone has capped upside attempts repeatedly.

A break above $74,000 opens a path toward $75,500 and potentially $83,700, where the 200-day EMA sits as major overhead resistance.

However, the ascending trendline near $66,000 acts as immediate support. A breakdown below exposes Bitcoin to $60,000-$62,000.

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