Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) shares are trading higher on Monday following U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which ended without agreement in Islamabad on Sunday after 21 hours of marathon discussions.

The development raised fears of potential disruptions to global crude supply through the key shipping route. It lifted energy stocks amid expectations of tighter oil market conditions.

As of early today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price surged 7.69% to $104 and Brent crude oil price increased 7.02% to $101.88.

VP Vance Fails To Secure Deal

Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan without securing a deal with Iran, stressing that Washington, D.C. would not compromise on its core demand that Iran would not seek a nuclear weapon.

Iran must not pursue "the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” Vance said.

Iran blamed "excessive" demands from the U.S. for the talks collapsing, according to a report by the country's semi-official Tasnim news agency.

On Saturday, President Donald Trump said, “We’ve totally defeated that country… let's see what happens, we win… Maybe they make a deal, maybe they don't. Doesn’t matter.”

While Vance was in Pakistan, Trump spent his Saturday evening watching UFC 327 in Miami. Marco Rubio, Trump’s secretary of state and national security adviser, joined him.

Middle East disruptions To Impact Q1 Earnings

Last week, Exxon Mobil disclosed that it expects Middle East disruptions to reduce first-quarter upstream earnings by $300 million to $500 million.

Exxon Mobil said assets in Qatar and the U.A.E faced operational interruptions beginning in March. These regions accounted for about one-fifth of global production in 2025.

The company expects these disruptions to reduce global oil-equivalent output by roughly 6% compared with the prior quarter.

Following this several analysts revised their price forecast on the stock:

  • Wolfe Research analyst Doug Leggate slashed the price forecast from $158 to $153.
  • Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd lowered the price forecast from $186 to $182.
  • JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram raised the price forecast from $140 to $170.
  • RBC Capital analyst Biraj Borkhataria raised the price forecast from $160 to $180.
  • Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne increased the price forecast from $178 to $184.

Technical Analysis

The broader market declined on Friday, with the Russell 2000 down 0.75% and the Dow Jones down 1.00%. While the energy sector saw a modest gain of 1.83%, Exxon Mobil’s rise indicates it is moving positively despite a generally negative market sentiment.

At $155.41, the stock is trading 3.7% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $161.37, suggesting short-term weakness. However, it is 0.9% above its 50-day SMA of $153.95, indicating some intermediate-term strength.

The relative strength index (RSI) is 41.87, indicating a neutral reading and suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at this time. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) shows a bearish signal, with the MACD at 1.4467 and the signal line at 3.3710, indicating downward pressure.

  • Key Resistance: $159.50 — a level where selling pressure may emerge.
  • Key Support: $147.50 — a level where buying interest could appear.

Top ETF Exposure

  • First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF (NASDAQ:FTXN): 9.21% Weight
  • Cohen & Steers Natural Resources Active ETF (NYSE:CSNR): 5.78% Weight
  • Strive Natural Resources and Security ETF (NYSE:FTWO): 6.90% Weight

XOM Price Action: Exxon shares are trading higher by 0.9% at $153 at the last check on Monday.

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