IBM (NYSE:IBM) is scheduled to report its first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 on April 22.

The tech company is likely to report its quarterly results in line with expectations. BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan expects Confluent to contribute approximately $50 million in revenues.

The Confluent acquisition closed around one quarter earlier than expected.

The IBM Analyst: Mohan reiterated a Buy rating, and slashed the price target from $340 to $300.

The IBM Thesis: The focus during the earnings release is likely to be on the integration of the Confluent acquisition and the contribution projected for 2026.

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Investors are also likely to study on consumption growth at RedHat, which IBM purchased in 2019. The sustainability of the company's Software and Consulting segments is also in focus, "given the recent disruption narrative in the industry," he added.

Confluent is likely to keep its full-year guidance unchanged as it looks to "offset the incremental dilution" with the extra quarter of revenues and cost synergies, the analyst stated.

He lowered the earnings estimates for the second quarter by around 15 cents per share to reflect the impact of dilution.

RedHat's growth is likely to have remained flat at 8% in constant currency terms, with continued consumption and bookings weakness, Mohan said.

He lowered the 2026 earnings estimates to $11.98 per share, from the prior projections of $12.20 per share. This reflects an additional quarter of dilution related to the Confluent acquisition and weaker growth in consulting.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, IBM had reported:

  • Revenues of $19.7 billion, up 9% year-over-year and 6% at constant currency
  • Adjusted earnings of $4.52 per share
  • GAAP net income of $5.6 billion

Management had guided to 2026 revenue growth of over 5% at constant currency and free cash flow of around $15.7 billion.

IBM Price Action: Shares of IBM had risen by 0.91% to $232.87 at the time of publication on Monday.

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