Prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says a “realistic” bearish outlook for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) differs significantly from an extreme “doomer” perspective, with both scenarios carrying different implications for investors.

In an Apr. 12 podcast, Cowen outlined a realistic scenario based on historical cycles.

He said Bitcoin could decline about 70% from a potential peak near $126,000, with a temporary pause after a roughly 50% drop before reaching a final bottom later in the cycle.

Such drawdowns align with past corrections of 70% to 80% and reflect a weakening macro backdrop, including a late-stage business cycle and possible recession.

By contrast, the doomer view involves a more severe and prolonged downturn tied to broader stock market weakness.

In that case, even a 70% decline may not mark the bottom, with Bitcoin potentially falling below key levels, such as ETF launch prices, and taking longer to recover amid an extended recession.

Cowen said these scenarios are not necessarily base cases but serve as frameworks to understand market risk and psychology. He warned that investors often dismiss realistic downside as overly pessimistic, only to react emotionally if it unfolds.

He advised staying grounded in historical patterns, recognizing macro risks and preparing to act rationally if a typical bear market bottom develops.

Last week, Cowen described Bitcoin's recent price action as a "textbook" countertrend rally, cautioning that such moves can trap late buyers before a broader decline resumes.

He identified the $78,000 to $79,000 range as a key bear market resistance zone.

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