GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE:GFL) shares are tumbling on Monday as the company announced its acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. for about $6.4 billion.

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The environmental services company plans to finance the acquisition through a combination of 80% in GFL subordinate voting shares and 20% in cash. 

SECURE shareholders can choose to receive $24.75 in cash, 0.4195 GFL subordinate voting shares, or a mix of $4.95 in cash plus 0.3356 GFL shares per share held.

Transaction Details

Under the deal terms, the company agreed to acquire all outstanding common shares of SECURE for $24.75 per share.

It represents a 23% premium to SECURE's 60-day volume-weighted average price as of April 10, 2026.

This acquisition aims to expand GFL’s waste management services and is supported by a strong management team from SECURE.

The deal is expected to enhance GFL’s operational footprint in Western Canada.

The acquisition is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.

Following the completion, SECURE common shares will be delisted from the TSX and will cease to be a reporting issuer under Canadian securities laws.

As of Dec. 31, GFL’s cash position stood at $85.6 million.

Synergies & Benefits

The acquired assets, combined with SECURE's strong margins and lower maintenance capital needs, are expected to boost GFL’s Adjusted EBITDA margin to 31.6% and Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion to a range of 40.5%–42.5%.

The company also expects it to be immediately accretive to Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share by 12%–15%.

With greater scale post-acquisition, GFL expects increased capacity for capital deployment while keeping net leverage in the low-to-mid 3x range by year-end.

Executive Commentary

Patrick Dovigi, founder and CEO of GFL stated, “The acquisition of SECURE will provide us with a highly complementary network of permitted waste processing and disposal assets that will densify our footprint in Western Canada, significantly enhance our scale and expand our ability to offer customers a full suite of waste management services.”

Dovigi added, “The transaction reinforces GFL’s goal of creating long-term equity value for our shareholders and is expected to significantly accelerate the achievement of the multi-year financial targets we outlined at our Investor Day in early 2025.”

Technical Analysis

The broader market is experiencing mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up 0.04% while the Dow Jones is down 0.39%. GFL’s decline comes as the broader market shows signs of volatility, indicating that company-specific factors may be influencing its stock performance.

At $39.11, GFL is trading 7.3% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $42.17, suggesting short-term weakness. It is also 10% below its 100-day SMA of $43.40, indicating a bearish intermediate trend.

The stock has seen a 12-month decline of 20.22%, reflecting a challenging year for investors. Currently, GFL is near its 52-week low of $38.60, which may suggest a lack of buying interest at these levels.

  • Key Resistance: $45.50 — This level may act as a barrier for upward movement.
  • Key Support: $38.50 — A test of this level could indicate further downside risk.

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

GFL Environmental is slated to provide its next financial update on April 29 (confirmed).

  • EPS Estimate: 6 cents (Up from a loss of six cents)
  • Revenue Estimate: $1.19 billion (Up from $1.09 billion)
  • Valuation: Forward P/E of 106.6x (Indicates premium valuation)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $50.84. Recent analyst moves include:

  • JP Morgan: Neutral (Raises target to $49 on April 10)
  • RBC Capital: Outperform (Raises target to $60 on Feb. 12)
  • Scotiabank: Sector Outperform (Lowers target to $56 on Feb. 12)

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for GFL Environmental, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:

  • Value: 7.58 — The stock is trading at a premium relative to peers.
  • Growth: 99.01 — Indicates strong growth potential.
  • Momentum: 19.05 — Suggests the stock is underperforming the broader market.

The Verdict: GFL Environmental’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a growth-heavy profile, but momentum indicators suggest it is currently struggling against broader market trends.

GFL Stock Price Activity: GFL Environmental shares were down 7.88% at $39.66 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo via Brantley Didier via Shutterstock