President Donald Trump said Tuesday he got a call from “the right people” in Iran and that “they would like to work a deal.”

Traders on Polymarket agree.

The permanent peace deal contract has surged to 66% by June 30, up from below 40% yesterday.

The weekend talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, but both sides are closer than they have been. The U.S. wants a 20-year enrichment pause, Iran offered five. So the dispute isn’t over the principle, it’s over details.

The Two Uranium Questions

A nuclear deal has to answer two questions. First, will Iran stop enriching uranium? The weekend counteroffer suggests yes, for a price.

The enrichment market prices a June 30 agreement at 55%, and every deadline on the permanent deal contract is surging. NBC News reported Tuesday that a second round of talks could come this week, before the ceasefire expires on April 21.

The second question is harder. Iran has nearly 500 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, enough for roughly 11 weapons according to the IAEA, much of it reportedly buried underground after U.S. airstrikes last year.

The stockpile surrender market is cooler. April 30 sits at just 29%. Even by year-end, it only reaches 49%. Traders seem to believe a deal may land on an enrichment pause while punting the question of what happens to the uranium Iran already has.

What It Means For Energy

Brent crude is down over 3% today, to around $96, a sign that markets are starting to price in diplomatic progress even as Trump’s naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) are directly exposed to whether the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil prices may keep rising until “meaningful ship traffic” resumes, which he expects within weeks. Polymarket gives a 53% chance of the traffic returning to normal by May 31st.

Oil prices are still up roughly 40% from pre-war levels near $70, and gasoline is averaging over $4.12 per gallon nationally, according to AAA. Even a deal that punts the stockpile question could bring significant relief if it reopens Hormuz and gets tankers moving.

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