PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP) reports Q1 2026 earnings before the bell Thursday.

The company has beaten EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters, which explains why Polymarket gives a 96% chance PepsiCo tops the $1.54 consensus. The more interesting action is on Kalshi.

What Prediction Markets Are Saying

On Kalshi, nearly $25,000 is riding on which specific words CEO Ramon Laguarta and his team will say on the 8:15 a.m. ET call.

The top of the board is mostly formality. “Volume” at 95%, “Acquisition” at 90%, and “China” at 84% are near-certainties for a company that just spent $4 billion on deals and has been losing snack volumes for five straight quarters.

The mid-range contracts are where it gets interesting.

“Tariff” is at 66%. Pepsi concentrate is manufactured in Ireland, but Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE:KO) makes its concentrate in Atlanta.

That meant PepsiCo was paying a 20% levy on every shipment back to U.S. bottling plants while its biggest rival paid nothing.

The Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs in February, but the 25% aluminum duty remains, and PepsiCo’s Beverages North America segment reportedly faced an 11-percentage-point tariff cost headwind in Q4.

“GLP-1” is at 72%, up 15 points.

PepsiCo’s snack volumes have been falling for five straight quarters, and the company has already cut prices on Lay’s and Doritos by up to 15% to win consumers back.

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which suppress appetite, are accelerating that same shift away from traditional snacking.

A mention on the call would signal Laguarta sees them as a permanent force, not a trend.

“Away from Home” is at 78%. “Away from Home” is industry shorthand for restaurants, stadiums, vending machines; anywhere you buy a Pepsi that isn’t a grocery store.

Laguarta called it a “big opportunity” at the CAGNY conference six weeks ago.

Traders getting less confident he’ll bring it up may suggest that channel isn’t performing the way management hoped.

“Celsius” is at 71%. PepsiCo owns an 11% stake in energy drink maker Celsius Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CELH) and distributes its brands across North America.

The integration has been going well, with Celsius projecting over 100% shelf space growth for its Alani Nu brand in 2026.

Reading The Board

Polymarket’s 96% beat probability suggests the numbers themselves are unlikely to surprise anyone. What may move the stock is what Laguarta says about the rest of 2026, particularly whether the February price cuts are actually driving consumers back to Frito-Lay.

The call is at 8:15 a.m. ET Thursday.

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