Editor’s note: This article was updated to adjust phrasing in the opening paragraph for accuracy.
BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) is turning more bullish on U.S. stocks, highlighting a forecast for an 80% surge in semiconductor earnings in 2026—even as geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility persist.
- NVDA stock is moving. See the chart and price action here.
According to the firm’s weekly commentary, data from LSEG show that the projected earnings spike in chipmakers is "helping drive upgrades in tech and overall" U.S. stock performance expectations.
Tech as a whole is now forecast to post 43% earnings growth in 2026, up from 26% last year, while the sector's valuation premium has fallen to its lowest since mid-2020.
The combination of decelerating valuations and accelerating profit growth could rekindle interest in megacap chip names like Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM)—companies central to the AI hardware boom.
AMD, NVDA Earnings Growth
Nvidia remains the sector's earnings anchor, with analysts forecasting fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.94 billion, up 65% year over year.
CEO Jensen Huang recently reiterated that the company expects "at least" $1 trillion in cumulative revenue from its Blackwell and Vera Rubin chip platforms through 2027, underscoring Nvidia's dominance in AI data centers, hyperscale computing and sovereign AI deployments.
AMD, meanwhile, could capitalize on the fastest-growing segment of that market.
The chipmaker's data center revenue is projected to climb 73% to $28.7 billion in 2026, fueled by growing adoption of its Instinct GPU lineup.
Notably, AMD's data center GPU revenue alone is forecast to more than double—up 114% year over year to $15 billion.
The company has outlined a long-term plan emphasizing a 60%-plus compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in data center sales over the next three to five years.
On The Other Hand…
Not everyone agrees with BlackRock’s rosy earnings growth outlook, however.
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said Tuesday that closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession.
"Let's assume [the strait is] shut down for the next six to 12 months — the world's going to end up in a recession," Griffin said, per CNBC. "There's no way to avoid that."
Nvidia currently faces risks from Strait-related supply chain bottlenecks, particularly in helium and raw materials. The ongoing shutdown of this shipping route creates a severe crisis, forcing investors to reckon with production constraints and rising logistics costs.
Investor Michael Burry, famed for predicting the 2008 housing crash, is also betting against Nvidia.
How To Trade It
If BlackRock's bullish call holds, the broader semiconductor complex could help power the next leg of the U.S. equity rally, offsetting macro headwinds from the war-driven oil spike.
Investors hunting for growth with credible earnings momentum could see this as an inflection point—where AI infrastructure demand becomes the market's core profit engine for 2026 and beyond.
Photo: Thrive Studios ID / Shutterstock
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