OpenAI is reportedly paying AI chip startup Cerebras Systems more than $20 billion over three years, and Polymarket is pricing the deal as the final push Cerebras needs to go public.

Polymarket traders now rank Cerebras as the second most likely company to IPO this year, at 93%, trailing only SpaceX. OpenAI sits far back at 38%.

The deal doubles the size of a January agreement and hands OpenAI warrants that could convert into a 10% Cerebras stake if total spending hits $30 billion.

The Working Capital Deposit Trick

The unusual part is how OpenAI is booking it.

The arrangement is reportedly structured as a “working capital deposit” rather than a traditional procurement contract. OpenAI is fronting Cerebras around $1 billion to build data centers, then booking that $1 billion as an asset on its balance sheet rather than expensing it.

A portion of the ongoing chip payments may then be recorded as interest income.

The result: compute costs that would normally land as a pure expense get reclassified as a receivable with a yield attached.

OpenAI plans to spend $45 billion on compute this year and $90 billion next year, with cumulative five-year spending reportedly topping $650 billion.

OpenAI is reportedly laying the groundwork for its own IPO, and a $650 billion compute bill is a hard sell to public investors. Turning chunks of that spend into balance-sheet assets and interest income softens the story.

OpenAI may use the structure as a template for deals with other chip suppliers and cloud providers.

What It Means For Nvidia And AMD

Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) still anchors OpenAI’s compute stack and has a non-binding letter of intent to invest up to $100 billion as OpenAI deploys 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.

But the expansion marks OpenAI’s second major supply-chain hedge, following earlier chip and equity agreements with Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD).

Nvidia shares have been choppy as traders digest a string of OpenAI diversification moves, and AMD closed 7.8% higher Wednesday after TSMC’s record quarter signaled AI demand remains insatiable.

The Cerebras IPO Restart

Cerebras tried to go public in 2024 but postponed the listing after U.S. regulators opened a national security review of its ties to UAE-based G42, which made up 87% of Cerebras revenue in the first half of 2024.

The company formally withdrew the filing in October 2025 and raised $1.1 billion privately instead.

The OpenAI deal effectively solves the customer concentration problem that spooked regulators.

Cerebras could refile as soon as this week at a valuation near $35 billion, according to The Information, a sharp premium to the $23 billion Series H it closed in February.

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