Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) shares are trading lower Friday morning after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to all commercial vessels for the duration of the ceasefire, a development that triggered a sharp sell-off in crude and pressured oil-linked equities.
- Exxon Mobil stock is feeling bearish pressure. Why is XOM stock dropping?
Hormuz Reopening Sends Oil Prices Lower
Iran's foreign minister said the passage was "completely open," helping calm fears of a major supply disruption through one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. In response, WTI crude plunged more than 14% to about $81 a barrel, while Brent fell 10% to roughly $89.
That news is bearish for Exxon because oil prices are a major driver of investor expectations around the company's upstream realizations, revenue and near-term earnings power. When the market rapidly prices out geopolitical supply risk, the premium that had been supporting crude can unwind just as fast, dragging large integrated oil names lower with it.
Crude is now headed for a second straight week of losses and is sitting more than $30 below its March highs, signaling a major reset in sentiment around supply tightness and pricing. Exxon shares were down 4.97% in the move as traders reassessed the company's profit outlook in a sharply weaker oil-price environment.
XOM Chart Shows Near-Term Pressure
Exxon is sitting in the middle of its 52-week range ($101.19 to $176.41), which points to a reset from March's highs rather than a full trend break. The stock is trading 10% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 3.6% above its 100-day SMA, a mix that leans bearish short term but still constructive on the intermediate trend.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum measure, is bearish with the MACD line below the signal line, which is consistent with sellers controlling the recent swing. When MACD stays under its signal, rallies often struggle to build follow-through until momentum improves.
- Key Resistance: $159.50 — a level where rebounds have recently stalled.
- Key Support: $118.50 — an area where buyers previously showed up to defend the trend.
Exxon Heads Toward May 1 Earnings
The countdown is on: Exxon Mobil Corporation is set to report earnings on May 1.
- EPS Estimate: $1.40 (Down from $1.76 YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $84.98 Billion (Up from $83.13 Billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E of 22.7x (Suggests fair valuation relative to peers)
Recent Analyst Moves Show Mixed Target Revisions
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $162.71. Recent analyst moves include:
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Lowers Target to $171.00) (April 17)
- TD Cowen: Buy (Lowers Target to $172.00) (April 10)
- JP Morgan: Overweight (Raises Target to $170.00) (April 9)
XOM Shares Slide Friday Morning
XOM Stock Price Activity: Exxon Mobil shares were down 4.67% at $144.88 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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