John Oliver used Sunday’s “Last Week Tonight” to call prediction markets gambling sites with better lawyers, adding the loudest voice yet to a backlash already being waged by state AGs, Congress and the sportsbook industry.

What Oliver Said

Oliver framed Kalshi and Polymarket as gambling sites operating in states where gambling remains illegal, arguing their hedging pitch strains credibility when most users trade sports or political word markets.

He cited one analysis showing more than two-thirds of all winnings on Polymarket have been captured by just 740 accounts, despite the platform having over two million users.

Oliver also went after CNN, Fox News, CNBC and Wall Street Journal parent Dow Jones for paid partnerships that put Prediction Market odds on air during news coverage, singled out Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory roles at both companies, and criticized CFTC Commissioner Michael Selig for suing three states rather than letting courts decide whether prediction markets constitute gambling.

He also flagged suspiciously timed Polymarket trades around the U.S. strikes on Iran and the Nicolás Maduro seizure.

What It Means For HOOD And COIN

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD), which distributes Kalshi contracts in all 50 states, is the clearest public-market proxy.

Bernstein last week projected industry volumes could reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN), which distributes Kalshi and is building its own prediction markets product, was directly name-checked.

Oliver played a clip of Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong on a recent earnings call rattling off “Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking and web 3” to move a prediction market tracking which words he would say on the call.

Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), parent of the NYSE, committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket in a two-stage deal completed last month.

The Backlash Hits A Sensitive Moment

More than a dozen bills targeting prediction markets are live in Congress, including the BETS OFF Act from Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Rep. Mike Levin‘s (D-CA) Death Bets Act and Sen. Adam Schiff‘s (D-CA) sports contracts bill.

TD Cowen analysts said last month that none are likely to pass this session.

The courts are the bigger threat.

The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi earlier this month, ruling New Jersey cannot enforce gambling laws against the platform.

The Ninth Circuit went the other way on Nevada days later, teeing up a circuit split that gaming attorneys expect to land at the Supreme Court.

Oliver’s segment arrives in the middle of that fight.

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