BofA Securities analyst Justin Post maintains a constructive outlook on Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) on Monday, reiterating a Buy rating and lowering the price target from $885 to $820 while projecting that the company will exceed market expectations for the first quarter of 2026.
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Strong Financial Projections for Q1 and Q2
Post estimates first-quarter revenue of $56 billion and GAAP EPS of $7.44, both of which sit above Street estimates of $55.4 billion and $6.64.
For the second quarter, he projects revenue of $60.1 billion and EPS of $7.49, again topping consensus.
He anticipates that Meta will issue second-quarter revenue guidance of $57.5 billion to $60.5 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 21% to 27%.
Expense Discipline and Headcount Management
The analyst highlights Meta’s continued “expense discipline,” noting that average job openings declined 33% quarter over quarter in the first quarter.
Post expects Meta to keep its 2026 expense guidance of $162 billion to $169 billion unchanged for now. However, he sees potential for future reductions if reports of a 10% headcount reduction in May prove accurate.
He estimates total 2026 expenses will come in at $163 billion, slightly below the Street’s $164 billion forecast.
AI Infrastructure and Product Innovation
Post believes the release of the Muse Spark model clears a significant overhang for the stock, as early data shows meaningful improvements in efficiency and performance.
While he expects Meta to maintain its aggressive AI infrastructure build — with a total investment of $145 billion, including partnerships — he suggests the company might raise the low end of its $115 billion to $135 billion 2026 capex guide.
He argues that current valuations underappreciate the benefits AI will bring to the core advertising business, such as improved targeting and automated messaging.
META Price Action: Meta Platforms shares were down 2.25% at $673.01 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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