Health insurance giant UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) could show signs of a continued turnaround effort when the company reports first-quarter financial results Tuesday before market open.

Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying before the report and the key items to watch.

UnitedHealth Q1 Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect UnitedHealth to report first-quarter revenue of $109.57 billion, down from $109.58 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has missed analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters and in four of the last five quarters. Prior to the recent losing streak, the company had been beating analyst estimates, with six beats in the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect the company to report first-quarter earnings per share of $6.56, down from $7.20 year-over-year.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters and in eight of the last 10 quarters overall.

What Experts Are Saying

UnitedHealth stock is down 20% over the last 52 weeks, with shares down slightly in 2026. The stock is also down around 50% from all-time highs set in November 2024, Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

"UnitedHealth heads into earnings with investors focused on medical cost trends, especially in Medicare Advantage, after industry-wide pressure has created a major headwind for shareholders," Woods said.

Woods said the focus could be on margin reassurance, or on whether rising costs lead to lower margin estimates.

"Guidance will also be crucial," he added.

Looking at UnitedHealth stock technically, Woods says shares are "at an interesting place” and that “he stock is above its 200-day moving average for only the third time in the last two years."

Woods said the first trip saw the stock above the key level for five days, the next trip was above the level for four days and the current streak is four days.

Weakness in the earnings report could see shares fall to "at least the $300 level," Woods said citing a support level. Woods said a better entry point could be below $300, around a key $287 support level.

"The stock has a history of overreacting and then settling down. This would be a good area to nibble."

On the other side, Woods said good news could lead to a spike in shares to the $350 area or potentially $375.

"It has tried to rally several times and failed, maybe this is the time it will happen."

Analysts have been positive on the stock in the current month. Here are recent analyst ratings on the stock:

  • Bernstein: Maintained Outperform rating, raised price target from $405 to $411
  • Raymond James: Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform, with price target of $330

Key Items to Watch in UnitedHealth's Q1 Report

Among the key items to watch in UnitedHealth's first-quarter report will be commentary on Medicare Advantage, as the company has received several wins for payments and rates and the key insurance item.

Higher Medicare Advantage payments could be a key for the company's guidance and the recent news came after rates were likely to remain unchanged.

Initial guidance from the company after fourth-quarter results was weaker than expected. Analysts and investors will look towards the company to either reaffirm this guidance or make adjustments. This key factor will likely drive the price action in the stock after earnings.

The price action in UnitedHealth stock could make the health insurance sector volatile and ETFs and investors in the stock.

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK)(NYSE:BRK) took an initial stake of 5,039,564 shares of UnitedHealth in the second quarter, making a potential bet on a turnaround. Additional filings showed no additional share purchases of UNH in the third or fourth quarter. That stake was taken when Warren Buffett was still CEO of the conglomerate.

With a new CEO at the helm of UnitedHealth, all stock positions are likely to be scrutinized, and the turnaround efforts of the health insurer in the first quarter could help make Berkshire's new CEO Greg Abel a continued believer or lead to a sale down the road.

UnitedHealth is also a key component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The stock is the eighth largest holding in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) at 4% of assets. The stock and other holdings reporting this week could put the index and ETF in the spotlight.

UnitedHealth Stock Price Action

UnitedHealth stock is down 0.3% to $323.66 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $234.60 to $453.50. The stock is down 3.8% year-to-date in 2026.

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