Counterpoint Research says the global auto industry is recalibrating its electric vehicle strategy as near-term challenges collide with long-term structural drivers.

Automakers Scale Back Amid Slower EV Adoption

On Monday, Counterpoint revised its EV outlook downward, now expecting EVs to account for 50% of global vehicle sales by 2035, compared with an earlier 65% estimate, reflecting slower adoption and reduced production plans.

Automakers have absorbed more than $70 billion in EV-related losses, prompting companies such as Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) and General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) to delay or scale back electrification efforts.

The EV outlook has been revised amid an OEM pullback, but the report says long-term fundamentals remain strong.

Associate Director Greg Basich said, "The global automotive industry stands at a crossroads, balancing near-term EV strategy adjustments with growing energy uncertainty."

Industry Navigates Conflicting Market Forces

Basich described a split dynamic shaping the sector, as companies pull back in the short term while external factors strengthen the long-term case for EVs.

He noted, "While automakers are pulling back on aggressive EV plans, geopolitical tensions and conflicts are quietly reinforcing the long-term case for electrification."

Counterpoint highlighted that the Iran war has disrupted oil supply, which could support EV demand over time, even as companies adopt more cautious and focused rollout strategies.

Diversified Technologies Drive Long-Term Transition

Counterpoint expects electrification to broaden across multiple technologies rather than rely solely on battery EVs.

Research Director Peter Richardson said, "By 2030, electrification will become more diversified, with BEVs leading the transition while PHEVs and EREVs play complementary roles."

He added, "EREVs are emerging as a transitional solution, helping bridge the gap between conventional hybrids and full electrification as markets evolve."

Price Action: Stellantis shares were up 1.61% at $8.83, Ford Motor shares were up 0.23% at $12.90, and General Motors shares were unchanged at $80.54 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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