Gas prices may be heading lower—but don't expect relief to arrive evenly. The next move at the pump isn't just about crude pulling back. It's about geography, logistics, and one critical chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz. And depending on where you live, the wait could look very different.
In an exclusive email interview with Benzinga, Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of Trading at BOK Financial, says the divergence is already baked in.
US First In Line For Relief
Even as crude prices ease, consumers won't see an immediate impact—and when they do, it won't be synchronized globally. Something investors in the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) should duly note.
"Gas prices will lag because current gasoline inventories will need to flow through the system," Kissler said, pointing to supply chain frictions and refining logistics that delay price transmission.
But once that pipeline clears, the U.S. could move faster than others.
He expects the U.S. and Asia to "see relief quicker," with a "dramatic drop in prices at the pump by early May"—assuming, crucially, that the Strait of Hormuz remains fully operational.
Europe's Longer Wait
On the other side of the Atlantic, the story looks stickier.
"Europe will continue to see higher prices for longer," Kissler noted, highlighting a more prolonged adjustment cycle even as global crude stabilizes.
That gap underscores a key reality: oil may be globally priced, but fuel costs are anything but uniform.
Hormuz Still Holds The Key
At the center of it all is the Strait of Hormuz—the artery through which sentiment, supply confidence, and price direction now flow.
"The U.S. fuel exports will remain a key factor," Kissler said, adding that as global supplies ease, demand for those exports should fall, leaving "more supplies here in the states."
The bottom line: relief is coming—but it's not universal. And until Hormuz proves it can stay open without disruption, the global reset in energy prices will remain uneven.
Image via Shutterstock
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