Tesla reports Q1 earnings this Wednesday after the close — and I’ve rarely seen a messier setup heading into a print.

Deliveries missed. The stock is flat versus October 2021. And Wednesday’s print could move it $13.25 in either direction.

But here’s how to cut through it.

I ran TSLA through my PFP framework — Positioning, Flows, and Price Action — to find the gamma walls, read the smart money, and figure out what the implied move is actually telling us.

Here’s how to trade Tesla earnings, whatever the outcome.

Positioning in TSLA

Before getting into the charts, it’s worth grounding the setup. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q1 deliveries came in at 358,000 vehicles against 408,000 produced — 50,000 unsold units sitting in inventory. The stock is at $390, exactly where it traded in October 2021.

There are also 21 active lawsuits hanging over the company covering FSD liability, wrongful death, and racial discrimination. IV for this week’s expiry is running at 77%, a 26-point premium over annualized vol.

That’s the backdrop.

Now, the positioning.

Using our proprietary gamma positioning tool (via Benzinga), we can see where the heaviest options concentration sits across all TSLA expiries through May op-ex. The right side of the chart shows call gamma by strike; the left shows put gamma.

At $392, Tesla is sitting just below the Top Gamma Strike (TGS) at $400 — the single strike with the largest combined gamma across calls and puts. That makes $400 a sticky level, one the market will gravitate toward absent a strong catalyst.

Below $400, call gamma weakens. Below $380, puts take full control — that’s where negative gamma kicks in, volatility expands, and the stock can move faster and farther. Minor put clusters exist at $370, $360, and $350, but they’re small relative to the $380 concentration. For bears, $380 is the natural first target.

To the upside, call gamma builds at $405 and $410, with $420 as a solid cluster. A positive earnings surprise would likely push toward those levels as call buyers get rewarded and dealers are forced to buy stock to hedge.

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Flows in TSLA

As of this writing, flows are leaning bearish: traders are selling calls and buying puts. Both sides of the chain are applying downward pressure, with net notional deltas around -$75M. That said, pockets of meaningful call buying (+$20M in single prints) suggest some traders are making a directional bet on a positive earnings outcome.

Notable positioning: traders are selling $430 calls for the Apr 27 expiry and buying $355 puts for Apr 24. That combination — a capped upside bet and short-dated downside protection — is consistent with a market that’s hedging rather than committing.

Bottom line: flow is mildly bearish, but not alarmingly so. For the day before an earnings print, mixed signals like this are normal. Wednesday’s flow will matter far more than today’s.

Price Action on TSLA

On the 5-minute chart, Tesla made a clean bullish impulse leg on Wednesday, April 15th, running from the low $360s to the $380s. Since then, price has entered a corrective consolidation, oscillating around the $400 TGS we identified in the positioning section.

That oscillation makes sense: $380 is the Top Put Strike (TPS), and the market is effectively pinned between $380 support and $400 resistance ahead of the catalyst. Expect that range to hold unless fresh news — a geopolitical development, an early leak — forces a break before Wednesday.

The current implied move for the earnings release is $13.25 in either direction. That fits neatly inside the positioning range: $380 on the downside, $405 on the upside. The market isn’t pricing in a blowout move. If it gets one anyway, the gamma walls will amplify it.

How I’m Trading It

Annualized IV for Tesla sits around 51%. But the Apr 24 expiry — which covers earnings — has ATM IV of approximately 77%. That 26-point vol premium sets up two distinct trades depending on how the print lands.

Scenario 1: “Meh” Earnings (Vol Collapse)

If earnings land as a non-event — no big beat, no big miss — that 77% IV collapses fast. Sell an iron condor or strangle targeting $410 on the upside and $380/$375 on the downside. The trade profits as long as Tesla doesn’t breach either barrier post-earnings. You’re not making a directional bet; you’re selling the fear premium back to the market.

Scenario 2: Earnings Beat

Long bull call spreads for the Apr 27 expiry or later. ATM vols for that expiry are running around 60% — more workable than the near-dated contracts. I’d target $405 and $410 to the upside, using the spread structure to offset theta and vega risk while keeping a defined upside.

Want to see exactly how I’m sizing and structuring these trades in real time? I’ll be live today in the Benzinga Options School, walking through the full earnings trade setup — and what a potential Iran/U.S. ceasefire could mean for the play.