Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports first quarter earnings after the bell today, with a Q&A call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET.

The stock has rallied recently on Elon Musk’s AI5 chip reveal and a wider Robotaxi rollout into Dallas and Houston.

But Polymarket only gives the company an 18% chance of beating earnings.

Words On The Board

The real action is on a Kalshi market where traders are pricing the specific words Musk and his team will say on the call.

“Terafab” is at 89%. Tesla’s proposed one-terawatt AI chip facility was explicitly excluded from the $20 billion 2026 capex figure, likely because the project’s estimated cost runs into the trillions.

Short-seller Jim Chanos has mocked the project on X: “Who needs FSD and Robotaxis when you can spend $5-13T on AI chip fabs?! That’s only 16-40% of US GDP.”

Reuters has reported Musk’s team is already contacting suppliers, meaning any guidance tonight becomes the first real cost figure Wall Street can price.

“SpaceX / xAI” is at 84%, SpaceX’s pre-IPO filing warns Musk’s orbital AI compute ambitions “may not achieve commercial viability,” directly contradicting his January pitch that space-based AI was a “no-brainer.” The concept is central to the SpaceX IPO pitch all the same; Starlink revenue alone doesn’t get the rocket company to a $1.75 trillion valuation.

“Optimus” sits at 99%. Despite Musk admitting on the Q4 2025 call that no units are yet doing “useful work,” the humanoid story is doing the heavy lifting on the Tesla bull case as the EV business stalls. Polymarket has Optimus hitting public sale by June 30 at just 7%.

Auto Fundamentals

“FSD” sits at 98% as class actions spanning California, Australia and the Netherlands accuse Tesla of selling autonomy it never delivered. A live comment on Hardware 3 refunds could move the stock.

“Cybertruck” is at 59%. 2025 sales crashed roughly 48% year-over-year to about 20,000 units, and up to 1 in 5 trucks are being sold to related companies.

“Supercharger” is at 48%. After Ford, General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) and every major European automaker switched to Tesla’s NACS plug, Tesla quietly became the tollbooth for American EV charging. That matters because it’s one of the few Tesla businesses with real pricing power, and Musk has never put a number on it. A revenue disclosure tonight would give Wall Street its first line item to model.

The Street’s Take

Wedbush’s Dan Ives has a $600 target and this week called Tesla’s stretch into earnings “code red,” describing the stock as at a “crossroads” as “bulls and bears debate how quickly the AI era will take shape over the coming year.”

The call is at 5:30 p.m. ET.

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