President Donald Trump said Wednesday that eight Iranian women protesters scheduled for execution “will no longer be killed,” claiming Tehran spared their lives at his request.

Hours later, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Very good news!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “I have just been informed that the eight women protestors who were going to be executed tonight in Iran will no longer be killed. Four will be released immediately, and four will be sentenced to one month in prison.”

Iran’s judiciary disputes the claim, telling state media the women were not at risk of execution.

Hormuz Seizures Tell A Different Story

The IRGC seized the MSC Francesca and Epaminondas and fired on a Greek-owned vessel now disabled off the Iranian coast.

“Disrupting order and safety in the Strait of Hormuz is our red line,” the IRGC Navy Command said. The group also claimed the Francesca was linked to Israel, without providing evidence.

The Epaminondas’ bridge was damaged by gunboat fire, according to management company Technomar, which said all crew were safe. Just seven ships transited the strait in the 12 hours leading up to the attacks, per MarineTraffic data. The waterway typically carries around a fifth of the world’s oil.

United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) is up over 1% today as hopes for a swift resolution to the crisis fade. Brent crude touched $100 a barrel, roughly 50% higher than a year ago. WTI rose to around $91.

Polymarket Fades The Deal

Polymarket’s permanent peace deal by May 31 contract trades at 47%, down from a high of over 70% last week.

A separate contract prices in just a 7% chance of pre-war Hormuz shipping levels returning by April 30.

Traders appear to be pricing Trump’s concessions as one-sided. The ceasefire extension, the women commutation, the “possible” Friday peace talks in Islamabad; all from Washington. Iran’s response today was to seize two ships and set one on fire.

A shorter-dated contract on a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 62%.

The Blockade Math Is Getting Tight

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that Kharg Island storage is days from full capacity, after which Iran’s oil wells will be shut in. Trump separately called Iran’s economy “collapsing financially,” claiming Tehran is losing $500 million a day.

If Bessent is right about Kharg, Iran has days before the blockade forces its hand.

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