Cruising stocks had been remarkably buoyant of late, with total worldwide cruise passenger volume cresting 37.1 million in 2025, according to a new report from the Cruise Lines International Association.
Citing the “continued strength and resilience of the industry”, the report noted nearly 90% of cruisers, indicating they intend to sail again.
Yet the ongoing US-Iran war has effectively dry-docked a significant portion of the global cruise industry, with multiple cruise lines canceling trips to key Middle Eastern tourist destinations, including Abu Dhabi, Cairo, and Dubai, for safety reasons.
The conflict has also sent fuel prices, which account for the second-largest expense for cruise companies after labor., soaring. In particular, bunker fuel, which is used heavily by ocean liners, has risen in price since the military conflict started in late March. In some European countries, bunker fuel prices have skyrocketed from around $720 per metric ton before the war to over $1,800 per metric ton by late April.
That one-two punch has hammered cruise industry stocks, with the benchmark S&P Hotels & Cruise Lines Sub Industry Index down -3.5% year to date.
But this trouble could spell opportunity for investors willing to take the long view. History shows that when oil shocks ease, whether from diplomacy or normalization of supply, travel and leisure stocks often rebound sharply.
Here are three cruise stocks to “buy the dip” in.
With signs of intermittent ceasefires and reopening discussions around key shipping lanes, investors may want to position now for a post-crisis recovery, ‘buy the dip’ trade in these otherwise sea-worthy cruise industry stocks.
Carnival Corp.
Trading at $27 per share and down 6% over the past 90 days, Miami-based Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is the largest cruise operator globally, and more importantly for investors, it’s also the most leveraged to fuel costs, which makes CCL the biggest loser during oil spikes and a major winner when prices decline.
Time will tell when the Iran conflict will end, but all indications are that the main U.S. military phase is largely over, as diplomats take center stage in negotiating a peace deal, which is usually a reliable indicator that the end is in sight. That would stabilize oil prices, allow Carnival (and other cruise fleets) to feast on robust bookings heading into the prime-time peak summer travel season, and enable company leaders to refocus on key issues like debt reduction and margin recovery.
Even though the stock is down, first-quarter revenues are up $6.2 billion, a hefty 6.1% year-over-year bump. The company also holds a $8 billion in customer travel bookings, the highest quarterly number ever recorded for Carnival.
Wall Street is paying attention, with nine of 12 market analysts issuing ‘buy’ calls on CCL shares, with three opting to ‘hold.’ Consensus target price calls land at $34.7 per share, representing a 28.9% share price rise. That number will surely rise when the war in Iran ends, travel routes are restored, and oil prices fall.
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Royal Caribbean Group
Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) stock is trading at $260 per share, down 6.6% year-to-date and 8.8% over the last five trading sessions.
The market will know a lot more about RCL’s financial outlook when the company reports earnings on April 30, but early projections are bullish, with expected quarterly earnings of $3.20 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of plus-18.1%, with revenues set to clock in at $4.45 billion, up 11.2% from the year-ago quarter.
Royal Caribbean, the world’s second-largest cruise company, also possesses a big advantage in passing higher costs along to consumers, who aren’t balking at pricier trips, at least not yet, given recent robust occupancy trends. RCL also has a stronger balance sheet relative to its peers, and its wide reach across the global travel transport sector makes the company a higher-quality, lower-risk option for cruise stock investors.
The company also projects a net sales revenue growth of 8.80% year-over-year, with expectations of reaching a record $17.94 billion for the 12 months ending December 2025, “driven by factors such as increased demand, effective cost discipline, and advanced analytics enhancing revenue streams,” Benzinga analysis noted. Furthermore, with an estimated 17.21% increase in ROC forecasted for the next twelve months and stable growth in net yields, “Royal Caribbean’s strategic initiatives position the company favorably for continued financial advancement.”
Analysts are bullish on the stock, with a consensus price target of $348 from 20 sector analysts, indicating a 3.6% upside.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
Trading at $18 per share as of April 24, Norwegian (NYSE:NCLH) sits between Carnival and Royal Caribbean in terms of market scale. NCLH tire-kickers should view the stock as a middle-ground play that should grow more powerful after a post-Iran oil-and-travel recovery.
For now, some in-house changes are underway that should prove to be a valuable reset for the company.
Major company shareholders, looking to inject some new blood into the company, just announced five new directors for Norwegian’s board, including two high-ranking travel and tourism thought leaders in former British Airways CEO Alex Cruz and former Disney Experiences CFO Kevin Lansberry. That shake-up was driven by Elliott Investment Management, which holds a 10% stake in the company and is looking for Norwegian’s c-suite to develop a fresh business plan that would make NCLH an under-the-radar turnaround story.
The company’s financial picture looks solid, with Norwegian Cruise Line expected to post earnings of $0.16 per share, indicating a 128.6% increase from the year-ago quarter. On an April 22 earnings call, company managers touted Norwegian’s brand-new Norwegian Aqua, the first ship in Norwegian Cruise Line’s new Prima Plus class, which has a 10% larger capacity than its current cruise ships.
The company is also strategically expanding its fleet with 17 new vessels on order, which will add 46,000 incremental berths, “thereby positioning itself for greater market penetration and capacity increases relative to competitors,” Benzinga analysis stated. “Furthermore, while current Caribbean pricing faces challenges due to elevated capacity, strong overall demand suggests that pricing power may return by late 2026 to 2027, further supporting a bullish outlook on the company’s financial performance.”
Among the three analyst outlooks from Stifel, Tigress Financial, and Wells Fargo, the average price target is $28.3, implying a 54.15% upside.
Image via Shutterstock/ Dennis MacDonald
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