Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains range-bound in the short term, but BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the broader trend is still firmly upward, with significant long-term upside driven primarily by global liquidity conditions.

$100,000 First, Then $125,000 In Focus

Hayes said Bitcoin could reach $100,000 after the northern hemisphere summer, with a potential move toward $125,000 by the end of 2026 if macro liquidity conditions continue to improve.

He argued that the primary driver is not regulation or political developments, but expanding dollar liquidity and global macroeconomic conditions.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin is already outperforming traditional markets such as the Nasdaq, and he expects that trend to continue into the fall if geopolitical and economic risks remain contained.

Hayes also dismissed the idea of a broad “altcoin season” driven by retail speculation in tokens such as Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). Instead, he said capital is increasingly concentrating in specific platforms with real usage and trading activity.

He pointed to Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE) as an example of a project attracting meaningful liquidity and user engagement, suggesting that market attention is shifting away from meme-driven cycles.

Skepticism Toward Regulation

Hayes was critical of U.S. crypto regulation efforts, including proposed frameworks such as the Clarity Act. He argued that Bitcoin does not require government oversight and should remain permissionless and global rather than being integrated into traditional financial rule sets.

He said he would prefer such legislation not pass, warning that attempts to make crypto resemble traditional finance could undermine its core value proposition.

Politically, Hayes downplayed the significance of election outcomes or policy promises, including past expectations tied to U.S. leadership.

Instead, he emphasized that liquidity expansion remains the dominant force behind Bitcoin's price trajectory, while regulatory developments play a secondary role at best.

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