May 4, 2026, marks another celebration for Star Wars fans, as the annual holiday reveals new content and consumer products and honors the well-known franchise. For shareholders of Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS), the celebration may be on hold, with a new Star Wars film a key catalyst for the stock in 2026.
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Upcoming Star Wars Film Could Spark Success
Star Wars fans around the world are celebrating May 4 as "May the 4th," a day that coincides with the famous phrase, "May the force be with you," in the Star Wars franchise.
With the franchise thriving, new films and Disney+ series have rolled out in recent years, alongside a steady stream of collectibles hitting store shelves.
For the first time since 2019, Disney will have a Star Wars movie in movie theaters, providing a major catalyst for Disney stock and for major movie theater companies such as AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) and Cinemark Holdings Inc (NYSE:CNK).
While Star Wars fans are celebrating, Disney shareholders are looking ahead to May 22, which is the theatrical release day for "The Mandalorian & Grogu," the first theatrical Star Wars film since 2019.
Star Wars films have grossed over $5 billion domestically and are one of the top film franchises of all time. The franchise consists of several trilogies and some stand-alone films. The new film will be a stand-alone and comes with characters previously used in movies and "The Mandalorian" series on Disney+.
The last Disney theatrical film was "The Rise of Skywalker," which grossed $515.2 million domestically and $1.07 billion worldwide. From 2015 through 2019, Disney released a Star Wars film each year. Here's a look at the box office success of those films:
- "Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens" (2015): $936.7 million domestic, $2.02 billion worldwide
- "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" (2016): $532.2 million domestic, $1.06 billion worldwide
- "Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi" (2017): $620.2 million domestically, $1.33 billion worldwide
- "Solo: A Star Wars Story" (2018): $213.8 million domestic, $392.9 million worldwide
- "Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker" (2019): $515.2 million domestic, $1.07 billion worldwide
While it has been years since a Star Wars film hit theaters, the most recent history shows strong success. The lone exception was the standalone "Solo: A Star Wars Story," which underperformed.
Disney Bets on Big 2026 Box Office
Disney had four of the top 10 grossing films in 2025, including second-ranked "Lilo & Stitch." In 2026, through the end of April, Disney has four of the top 10 grossing films, but two are carryovers from 2025, and the totals are significantly lower than the top 10 hits the year before.
The upcoming Star Wars film is one of Disney's big bets on a 2026 lineup of films that spans across several of its top-grossing franchises of all time. Here's the upcoming lineup of likely blockbuster hits:
- May 22: "The Mandalorian & Grogu"
- June 19: "Toy Story 5"
- July 10: "Moana" (live action)
- Dec. 18: "Avengers: Doomsday"
The four films above will likely all be in the top 10 grossing films of the year and could help Disney dominate the box office.
Odds on prediction market Polymarket currently list "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" as the film predicted to have the highest domestic box office at 75%. That film comes from Sony Group (NYSE:SONY), with Disney partnering on the movie. The odds on Polymarket for other Disney films to be the highest-grossing in 2026 currently sit at:
- “Avengers: Doomsday”: 12%
- “Toy Story 5”: 4%
- “The Mandalorian & Grogu”: 1%
While Disney may not have the top-grossing film in 2026, it is likely to dominate the overall box office chart and Star Wars could be a big reason why.
Disney Stock Price Action
Disney stock trades at $102.73 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $89.61 to $124.69. Disney stock is down 7.8% year-to-date in 2026.
Photo: Gennadii-1989 via Shutterstock
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