Wall Street’s first prediction market ETFs were set to debut this week, but the Securities and Exchange Commission has paused the rollout and asked for more disclosures.
The delay hits as Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) prints record prediction market revenue, signaling investor demand for the same boom these ETFs are trying to package.
ETF issuers Roundhill Investments, Bitwise and GraniteShares filed in February for more than two dozen funds combined.
The 75-day window that lets ETFs go live automatically was due to expire this week, and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart had said last week the launches looked imminent.
Two Dozen Funds In Limbo
The three issuers have filed for more than two dozen prediction-market-linked ETFs combined, with election products leading the first wave. The pipeline also covers tech layoffs, recession odds, and a Bitwise filing from Friday on whether crude oil tops $120 a barrel this year.
Roundhill’s prospectus flagged heightened insider trading risks tied to event contracts and warned of potentially catastrophic investor losses with no recourse if outcomes are later disputed or revised, according to Reuters.
The SEC declined to comment, as did Roundhill CEO Dave Mazza and a GraniteShares spokeswoman.
HOOD Books Record Quarter
Robinhood is the most direct public bet on the sector, which Bernstein predicts will reach $1 trillion in volume by 2030.
The company’s “other transaction revenue” line, which primarily captures event contracts, hit $147 million in Q1, up 320% year over year. Customers traded a record 8.8 billion contracts.
CEO Vlad Tenev told investors last week the company saw “record levels across prediction markets” in the quarter. Robinhood’s Rothera joint venture with Susquehanna, expected to launch in Q2, will give it end-to-end control over the customer experience.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan compared the SEC review to the early rollout of bitcoin ETFs, which faced lengthy delays before launching successfully.
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