BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reaffirmed his $125,000 Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) target at Consensus Miami 2026, dismissing the CLARITY Act as irrelevant and arguing that fiat liquidity is the only factor that matters.

Regulation Won’t Move The Needle

Hayes bluntly dismissed pending U.S. crypto legislation, including efforts to establish clearer rules for stablecoins and digital assets. 

He argued that the CLARITY Act will bring nothing unless it triggers more money printing.

Hayes noted the industry has already grown into a multi-trillion-dollar market without regulatory certainty. 

He argued that regulation primarily benefits centralized companies rather than the underlying crypto assets themselves, and anyone who wants to integrate Bitcoin into their business has already found a way since 2009.

The reason crypto has value is its utility outside the traditional banking system, Hayes explained.

Bitcoin has proven it works without regulatory approval, making legislation largely irrelevant to its core value proposition.

The Money Printing Thesis

Hayes anchored his $125,000 target to monetary expansion, not regulatory developments.

He pointed to historical examples including bank bailouts during the 2008 crisis, COVID stimulus checks, Biden’s New Green Deal, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine as events that drove up bearer assets like Bitcoin and gold.

“The more money that is printed in the U.S. and around the world, the more value that Bitcoin will have in fiat currencies,” Hayes stated. “Bitcoin is a combination of a tech stock which works, and its liquidity. That’s all that matters”

Hayes claimed the world has entered a wartime economy, which means increased government spending and credit creation will support risk assets. 

He noted that Bitcoin has outperformed the NASDAQ and gold since February 28, attributing the relative strength to this dynamic.

AI Job Losses Will Force Central Bank Response

Hayes warned that AI-driven job losses in high-income sectors like technology could create acute financial stress. 

These workers carry substantial mortgages, credit cards, and loans while representing the highest consumers in the economy.

Even a small percentage of displaced high-income workers could trigger a feedback loop of reduced consumption, corporate revenue declines, rising defaults, and tighter credit conditions. 

This scenario forces policymakers to respond with monetary easing to stabilize the system.

Hayes argued that Bitcoin was already signaling insufficient money creation to forestall the AI deflationary event. 

If his thesis on the pace of central bank and commercial bank money creation plays out, Bitcoin will reach $125,000 through expanding liquidity rather than regulatory developments.

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