Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) reports first-quarter earnings before the bell tomorrow morning, and the prediction markets have already split the call into two separate stories.

Polymarket gives Uber just a 13% chance of clearing the $0.71 GAAP EPS bar.

New CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy, Uber’s third in three years, runs his first call.

Kalshi is where the color is. Traders are betting on which words come up on the 8:00 a.m. ET call.

What Kalshi Predicts

“Freight” is at 83%. Uber Freight is a digital marketplace matching shippers with trucking carriers. It just hit breakeven adjusted EBITDA last quarter for the first time in three years.

“Safety” is at 82%. The next biennial US Safety Report is due in 2026, and rising insurance costs were a named Q4 margin headwind.

“Waymo” is at 96%. Waymo is the only robotaxi operator at real commercial scale, and the fact that it dispatches through the Uber app in Austin and Atlanta is the proof point for Uber’s platform thesis in an autonomous world.

“Lucid” is at 72%. Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ:LCID) anchors Uber’s robotaxi rollout through a deal to deploy 20,000-plus Lucid Gravity SUVs running Nuro Driver autonomy software, with first commercial service launching in the San Francisco Bay Area later this year.

“Elite” is at 69%, Uber’s new luxury chauffeur tier launched in March across LA, San Francisco and New York, built on the recent Blacklane acquisition.

“Joby” is at 69%.

Joby builds electric air taxis: battery-powered aircraft that take off and land vertically like helicopters but run quieter and cheaper.

The plan is for riders to book them straight through the Uber app. Joby flew its first NYC passenger demo on April 27, a 15-minute hop from JFK to Manhattan, with commercial launch in Dubai targeted for later this year.

“Waabi” is at 64%. The Toronto autonomous trucking company, founded by former Uber ATG chief scientist Raquel Urtasun, raised $1 billion in January and committed to deploying at least 25,000 robotaxis exclusively on Uber’s network.

Below 50%

“Nissan” sits at exactly 50%. The carmaker signed a memorandum with Uber and U.K. AV startup Wayve in February to launch a Tokyo robotaxi pilot in late 2026, using Nissan LEAFs powered by Wayve’s AI Driver.

“Avride” is at 49%. The Nebius-backed startup has roughly 200 Hyundai Ioniq 5 robotaxis live in downtown Dallas as of April, plus sidewalk delivery robots for Uber Eats in three U.S. cities.

What To Watch

UBER is trading around $74, down roughly 10% year to date, against an average analyst price target north of $100.

The Kalshi board makes the strategic picture clear.

Waymo, Lucid, Joby, Waabi, and Avride are all near-locks for a mention, and every one of them is a robotaxi, eVTOL or autonomous-trucking partner. Uber is no longer a ride-hail company that happens to dabble in autonomy. It’s a platform betting that whoever wins the autonomous race wins through Uber.

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