President Donald Trump called the overnight strikes on Iran “just a love tap,” and Polymarket traders are barely pricing in any threat to the April ceasefire.

The U.S. struck targets in Iran after Tehran fired missiles, drones and small boats at three U.S. destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.

“The ceasefire is going. It’s in effect,” Trump told ABC News’ Rachel Scott by phone.

The Airspace Market Did Not Move

The closest proxy to a market on the ceasefire breaking is Polymarket’s “Iran closes its airspace by…?” contract, which has logged over $10 million in volume and barely twitched on the strikes.

The May 8 outcome sits at just 2%, with May 31 at 31%.

Iran typically closes its airspace defensively when a major U.S. or Israeli attack is incoming, so a flat market means traders are not pricing in further escalation from Washington.

The bigger “US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?” market tells a similar story, Yes is at 75% for December 31st and 53% for June 30th.

Two Reasons Traders See Trump Boxed In

Trump warned that the U.S. would hit “a lot harder, and a lot more violently” if Tehran doesn’t sign a deal soon, but there are two reasons why Polymarket traders are fading that rhetoric.

The first is gas prices.

The national average for a gallon of regular jumped 25 cents this week to $4.55, the second consecutive 25-cent weekly rise and $1.40 higher than a year ago, per AAA. A return to kinetic war could push pump prices higher still, heading into the midterms.

Secondly, Trump is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 and 15, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirming Iran will be on the agenda. China hosted Iran’s foreign minister Tuesday and is reportedly pressing Tehran against a resumption of hostilities ahead of the summit.

A hot war and $120 oil is not the backdrop Trump wants for Beijing.

The Ticker Read

That leaves the war premium powering 2026’s biggest oil trades exposed. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have already come well off their March highs, and Barron’s flagged this week that traders are increasingly pricing in an end to the war.

Higher-beta producers like Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) and the Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE:VDE) carry the largest swings if the Beijing summit produces a credible diplomatic signal.

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